After the Spring Festival, I took another look at the market, and indeed, many changes have occurred. In this review, I will analyze the recent structure and news sentiment, and share some technical observations as well.
Let's start with the macro perspective. The implementation of the January US CPI data actually provided some relief to the market. Year-over-year 2.4%, month-over-month 0.2%, both milder than expected, which directly supported risk assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL. Coupled with signals from the CLARITY Act advancement, support from the fiscal authorities, and the Senate's push, the overall crypto market has a favorable catalyst in the medium term.
Here's my observation on BTC. The daily chart has broken through the previous downtrend channel, but the current structure still belongs to a bear market. From the 50-week bull-bear dividing line at 85,000, the price has entered the bear market zone. The 67,000 level I mentioned earlier has now become a key psychological level. According to the Vegas channel, the oscillation range above and below is roughly between 78,485 and 66,870. I personally lean toward the view that the price will fluctuate repeatedly within the 72,700 to 78,520 range. If you hold spot positions, shorting on rallies for hedging is a good approach. The liquidation chart indicates that high-leverage short positions may face risks, especially in the 75,000 to 70,000 range. Additionally, from the panic indicator, when the price drops to 67,000, the fear index plummets into the single digits of 8, indicating market sentiment is indeed very pessimistic.
ETH's situation is similar to BTC, but the downside break is more forceful. The current price has already reached the previously set entry points at 2,365, 2,275, and 1,970. The ETHDenver conference has provided some boost to the ecosystem, but short-term technicals remain weak. From the daily chart, the direction is more likely to follow BTC, continuing to oscillate between 2,150 and 2,400. The liquidation chart shows that smart money at higher levels has already exited, leaving behind high-leverage speculative positions, which means further liquidations are possible.
As for SOL, I personally have a positive view on its fundamentals, but the current issue is policy risk. As an ecosystem application chain, SOL's advantages are low fees and high efficiency. However, if regulations tighten, BTC and ETH, as the big brothers, will have more stable positions. SOL, being a meme-heavy chain, may see costs rise under regulatory pressure, which could severely impact its ecosystem's prosperity. Technically, the probability of spot price decline for SOL is still quite high, with support zones between 55 and 75. Going lower is not very advisable. The bottom support range is around 48 to 67.
XRP, after following the main coins in a sharp decline, has now reached its support bottom. The price could attempt to go down to 0.88, where buying spot might present an opportunity. If you can hold LTC spot, it’s worth holding; the support zone is between 39 and 42.5. ARB is currently in a structural bear market, with bleak application prospects, so short-term holding of spot is not recommended.
BNB and OKB are in similar situations; support levels have all been touched, and breaking below would enter a structural bear market. Small long positions can still be held, but be mentally prepared.
Gold remains bullish, but it has now entered a stage dominated by institutional and smart money, so ordinary investors should be cautious. Silver's issue is that the bubble is too high; fundamentally, its scarcity is insufficient, and it also has industrial attributes. The price deviates too far from its intrinsic value and will eventually revert.
Overall, the market is in a rather conflicted phase. The news sentiment is favorable, but the technicals are still digesting the previous declines. My advice is: if you are a long-term holder of spot positions, you can gradually add on support levels. For short-term trading, be more cautious, as liquidation risks from high leverage do exist. Lastly, remember to manage risks well and avoid overconfidence.