$BTC Evening Market Outlook

Although Bitcoin's hourly level briefly broke through the triangle consolidation pattern, it failed to hold above the upper boundary, with a shooting star pattern forming at the high, indicating significant selling pressure from above. This rebound touched 71342 and then encountered resistance and fell back, returning to run within the triangle, while completing the first retest of the 70408 support level.

If the 70408 support holds effectively, there remains a possibility of breaking through the triangle again in the subsequent market. To initiate a new round of uptrend, one must first break through the shooting star high of 71342, then successively overcome the 71565 resistance level. Only after these two key levels are firmly established can we look towards 72350 and higher price points. Failure to break through any one level will limit upside space.

If the market weakens and breaks below the 70408 support, it will test the 69809 neckline, which serves as the extreme support level for this retracement. Once breached, the rebound structure from 69809 to 71342 will be destroyed, and subsequent attention should be paid to the 69203 and earlier low support levels. If these continue to break, 68214 will become the next target level.

This rebound is not without reason. The previous white box area formed an inverted morning star pattern, laying the foundation for the rebound. Subsequently, as the price encountered resistance at 70408, and after retesting 69809 to confirm effective support, the 71342 rebound move emerged, with clear and traceable logic.

Operational Reference

• Buy on the right side when breaking above 70865 with volume to speculate on the rebound;

• Short on the right side when breaking below 70033 with volume and rebounds fail to recover, strictly implement stop losses.

Level Outlook

• Hourly level: Hold above 70865, watch 71565-72350 above, if unable to hold above then upside is invalid;

• 4-hour level: Break below 69827, watch 68766-68313 below.

On the daily level, Bitcoin pulled back after forming an isolated high and is now running within a flag pattern range. The overall market has returned to an oscillation pattern. With the flag upper boundary at 74606 and lower boundary at 66580, swing traders can engage in high-selling and low-buying strategies around this range, with timely stop losses on breakouts or breakdowns. The oscillation cycle duration is unknown; the longer the oscillation, the more high-selling and low-buying opportunities emerge. Currently, the daily MACD fast and slow lines have crossed above the zero line, with bulls dominating the market. My personal approach is to primarily focus on buying on pullbacks.