#加密市场行情震荡 Bitcoin temporarily surged to $79,388, just a step away from the $80k mark, then sharply reversed and fell below $77,000. Ethereum broke below the $2,300 level. Behind this nearly dramatic market movement, the geopolitical game in the Strait of Hormuz, inflation alerts from soaring oil prices, and continuous inflows of ETF funds over ten days form a complete script of bullish and bearish battles. As hundreds of millions of dollars in options are settled today, the market's direction choice is now entering a countdown phase. 1. Market Overview: $80k Fails to Hold, Both Coins Retreat on April 24, the cryptocurrency market experienced a rollercoaster of rising and falling. Bitcoin (BTC) once surged to a high of $79,388, just about $600 shy of the $80k integer mark, but the rally could not sustain. The price then quickly retreated below $77,000, with an early low of $76,997, currently around $77,800. The past 24 hours saw a decline of approximately 0.84% to 1.47%, with weekly gains narrowing to about 4%. Ethereum (ETH) experienced more volatility. Ethereum opened Wednesday at $2,375.12, once rising more than 2% along with Bitcoin, but then retraced gains and broke below the $2,300 level. It now hovers around $2,320, with a 24-hour decline of 3.35%, turning the weekly trend downward. Bitcoin’s market share remains around 60%, Ethereum’s market share is about 10.8%, both slightly down from the previous day, with overall risk assets under pressure. Altcoins also weakened, with XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin generally falling, funds highly concentrated in Bitcoin, forming a “one-way” upward pattern. In terms of liquidation data, total liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours reached $257 million, with long positions accounting for as much as 70% (about $181 million). 2. Bullish Drivers and Suppressors: Positive and Negative Forces Clash The “Hero” Behind the Rise: ETF Funds Pour In The core driver of Bitcoin’s surge is the large-scale and continuous inflow of ETF funds. As of the morning of April 24, 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of about $335 million in a single day, with monthly inflows surpassing $2.1 billion, and net inflows since the start of the year around $1.8 billion. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT contributed $246 million, with inflows totaling $1.9 billion over the past month. For Ethereum, the spot ETF recorded net inflows for the tenth consecutive day, with a total inflow exceeding $96.4 million, led by BlackRock’s ETHA with $53.6 million. Meanwhile, whale wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated over 56k BTC in the past 10 days, with on-chain accumulation trends continuing. This structural repair of funds is seen as the biggest positive signal since the beginning of the year. Where does the “ceiling” of suppression come from? However, Bitcoin’s near-approach to $80k ultimately failed to break through, with clear influencing factors: 1. Strait of Hormuz Deadlock Suppresses Risk Sentiment Trump claimed “the U.S. has full control of the Strait of Hormuz,” but Iran linked reopening the strait directly to U.S. ceasefire compliance, with market expectations of diplomatic progress before April 30 dropping sharply from 8% to 3%. Meanwhile, Iran is levying “toll fees” payable in cryptocurrency for passing ships, embedding Bitcoin into the global energy settlement system in an unprecedented way. This structural change is a long-term potential positive but also increases short-term market uncertainty. Oil prices responded accordingly, with Brent crude approaching $95, and WTI rising to about $95, with energy costs continuing to climb. 2. Inflation Alerts and Rate Lockdowns The Pentagon recently warned in confidential briefings that clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz would take at least six months, and gasoline and oil prices could remain high during the mid-term elections. Persistently high energy costs leave little room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. CME FedWatch shows the probability of holding rates in May at 93.9%, while the chance of a rate cut in June has fallen to 58.7%. Market expectations for rate cuts throughout the year have significantly shrunk. 3. The “Selling Pressure Trigger” at $80,100 Glassnode analysis indicates that $80,100 is a key “psychological trigger”—once Bitcoin surpasses this level, three mechanisms may combine to create selling pressure: short-term holders’ cost basis, the “54% profit line” at the end of the previous bear market rebound, and the short-term profit surge to about $4.4 million per hour. From the market performance, Bitcoin encountered a rapid downward reversal as it approached $80k, which aligns closely with this technical analysis. 4. Continuous Negative Funding Rates, Growing Selling Pressure The contract market has experienced negative funding rates for about 47 consecutive days, indicating that short positions have been dominant for a long time, and market fears at current prices have not dissipated. Even at high levels, shorting remains profitable, serving as one of the resistance factors for price increases. Spot demand is also weak; CryptoQuant’s research head pointed out that this rally was mainly driven by perpetual futures. If traders start taking profits and spot demand continues to shrink, a correction risk looms. 3. Options Expiry Approaching, Market Waits for Direction Today, options worth approximately $9.87 billion in nominal value will expire—comprising 109k BTC options (max pain at $72,000) and 563k ETH options (max pain at $2,200). Implied volatility (IV) has continued to decline, with BTC’s main expiry IV dropping below 40%, while ETH remains around 60%. The market has not shown excessive FOMO, but the direction of volatility recovery after expiry will influence subsequent trends. Based on liquidation data, if BTC breaks above $81,848, major exchanges could face liquidations of $1.56 billion in short positions; if ETH breaks above $2,425, short liquidations could reach $80k. Conversely, if prices fall further, long positions will also face large-scale liquidations. The key range is between $72,000 and $74,000. 4. Market Outlook: Three Catalysts for the Coming Week U.S.-Iran Negotiation Progress (Late April to Early May): April 30 is a potential key date for diplomatic developments, and whether a concrete framework emerges will influence risk appetite. Quarterly GDP and PCE Data (April 30): The U.S. Q1 GDP preliminary release, March PCE, and employment cost index will be released consecutively, directly affecting the market’s expectations of Fed policy paths. Can ETH Hold Steady at $2,300? Ethereum’s price retreated from $2,375 to $2,316 on Thursday. Whether it can defend the $2,300 level will determine if its short-term technical strength can continue. Selected Institutional Views Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas: “All capital flow indicators for Bitcoin spot ETFs have turned positive for the first time in months. ‘They are green, not red,’ indicating that large-cycle capital allocation has not reversed.” Glassnode: Emphasizes that $80,100 is a triple sell pressure trigger; whether buying can absorb supply above this level will determine the success or failure of this breakout. CryptoQuant researcher Julio Moreno: States that the current rally is driven by perpetual futures, with spot demand still shrinking. “If traders start taking profits and spot demand continues to decline, a correction risk is present.” 5. Trading Recommendations Short-term traders: Focus on $72,000 support (max pain point for options) and $80,100 resistance for Bitcoin. After tonight’s expiry, observe the direction of volatility recovery. If it effectively breaks below $72,000, beware of deeper corrections. For Ethereum, watch the $2,200 support and $2,425 resistance; a break above the latter could trigger large-scale short liquidations. Mid- to long-term holders: The current structural repair of funds (monthly ETF inflows exceeding $2.1 billion) is the most positive signal since the start of the year. Additionally, USDT’s market cap has risen to a record high of $188.8 billion, with stablecoins as a potential buying force. The area below $70,000 has long-term value for allocation, and it is recommended to deploy gradually. After the $80k options expiry, evaluate structural accumulation opportunities in Q2. Risk Alerts: Strait of Hormuz uncertainties: There is a clear gap between Trump’s statements and Iran’s stance, making the market highly sensitive in the short term. Inflation expectations pressure: If oil prices stay at high levels around $95, the Fed’s room to cut rates will further diminish. Post-expiry volatility: Gamma effects dissipate after options expiry, and the market may face new short-term volatility directions. Leverage risks: Current contract positions remain high, and rapid price swings can easily trigger chain liquidations.