Bitcoin ( BTC ) has strongly rebounded, breaking through $114,000: The surge in volume and institutional inflows indicate a major market movement in Q4, with the possibility of hitting a new high of $180,000.

The price of Bitcoin has strongly rebounded to $114,603 after experiencing fluctuations in September, rising 2.5% within 24 hours, with trading volume surging 70% to $588 billion. Analysts believe that this rise is not coincidental but is driven by a global liquidity shift caused by the Fed's interest rate cuts, institutional inflows due to the SEC's relaxation of ETF rules, and on-chain accumulation behavior. On-chain data shows that long-term holders are accumulating, exchange reserves are decreasing, and the market is in an "accumulation phase." Technical indicators have turned to "buy" signals across the board, and if it can clear resistance levels at $118,000 and $124,000, analyst Carmelo Alemán predicts that the price of Bitcoin could challenge new highs of $180,000 in Q4.

Market Sentiment Shift: Multiple Positive Factors Drive Q4 Launch

Bitcoin demonstrated strong momentum at the beginning of the last quarter of 2025, primarily due to positive changes in the macroeconomy and market structure:

• Macro liquidity rotation: CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan analyzes that the Fed's interest rate cut on September 17 weakened the dollar and boosted gold prices. Historically, capital tends to flow into gold first, and then rotate into Bitcoin as risk appetite improves. This pattern is repeating again.
• Volume Surge: After weeks of silence, Bitcoin's daily volume increased significantly by 70% in the past 24 hours, reaching $588 billion, indicating a significant rebound in investor participation.
• Institutional demand increases: The relaxation of the ETF listing rules by the U.S. SEC has boosted market confidence, not only giving rise to new XRP and DOGE products but also driving stable inflows into major funds such as BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC.

On-chain data evidence: "accumulation phase" aims for new highs

On-chain indicators and holder behavior further support a bullish outlook, indicating that the market is in the "accumulation phase" before the next pump:

• Capital inflow drives market capitalization: CryptoQuant contributor Carmelo Alemán pointed out that over the past year, Bitcoin's market capitalization rose from $8700 billion to $1.07 trillion, with an average daily inflow of $3850 million.
• Accumulation signals are clear: Long-term holders and miners are gradually increasing their positions, while the selling behavior of short-term holders and long-term holders has decreased.
• High target forecast: Alemán summarizes that global liquidity is still increasing, and these factors collectively suggest that Bitcoin is accumulating momentum. He predicts that if institutional inflows and liquidity trends are maintained, Bitcoin is expected to reach a new all-time high of $180,000 by the end of this year.

Technical Analysis: Strong Support at $108,000 and Breakout Path

(Source: TradingView)

The technical chart signals are consistent with the fundamental analysis, providing clear guidance for the upcoming pump:

• Support level consolidation: The recent rebound was triggered by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the oversold levels in September, with Bitcoin successfully maintaining strong support between $108,000 and $110,000.
• Bullish signal unified: All major time frames' moving averages have issued a "buy" signal, indicating that the overall trend is inclined to rise.
• Key resistance level: The initial resistance faced on the upside is at $118,000, followed by the peak in August at $124,000. Analysts believe that once these obstacles are cleared, supported by sustained liquidity inflows and institutional interest, Bitcoin is expected to achieve a year-end target of $150,000 to $180,000.

Conclusion

The performance of Bitcoin in Q4 2025 is the result of the combined effects of an improving macro environment, institutional capital embrace, and on-chain accumulation. The surge in volume and the comprehensive bullish technical indicators have generated strong optimism in the market. With the popularity of ETF products and BTC being deeply ingrained as the "digital gold" narrative, the target of $180,000, while bold, is by no means impossible.

As the Q4 market begins, do you think the expectation that the SEC will approve more ETFs (such as Solana or XRP) in the future will weaken Bitcoin's dominance, or will it instead further enhance the overall liquidity of the cryptocurrency market?