Powell Speech Could Spark Market Volatility

Key Notes

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address the National Association for Business Economics today in Philadelphia.
• Markets expect rate cuts, but a hawkish tone could trigger more volatility.
• The crypto market has recorded a 4% drop today, with Bitcoin trading around key support.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a closely watched speech titled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the NABE annual meeting today. This comes at a time of intense market volatility, with investors awaiting signals on US interest rates.

Futures markets currently assign a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and an 89% probability of another in December. This suggests broad expectations for monetary easing amid signs of economic slowdown.

However, if Powell signals that interest rates may remain higher for longer, analysts warn that both traditional and crypto markets could face renewed sell-offs.

Data Delays Add to Uncertainty

The speech takes place amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Last week, Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports triggered a sharp decline across risk assets.

The U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, including consumer inflation and wholesale cost reports, leaving investors and policymakers with limited visibility.

Related article: Next Fed Chair Pick Could Propel Bitcoin to Record HighsThis increases the stakes for Powell’s remarks, which may serve as one of the few clear indicators of the Fed’s current thinking. According to market analyst Ash Crypto, any sign of policy easing could boost sentiment and turn risk assets bullish again.

What’s for Crypto Traders?

The crypto market is currently down 4%, with Bitcoin

BTC $111 086

24h volatility: 3.0%

Market cap: $2.21 T

Vol. 24h: $76.07 B

falling to $111,000 at the time of writing.

Analysts identify $108,000-$110,000 for Bitcoin as a crucial support zone. A drop below these levels could spark a new wave of cascade liquidations in leveraged positions.

Crypto expert 0xNobler noted that some high-level traders may be positioning for Powell to cancel or delay rate cuts.

Despite the short-term volatility, analysts see a market surge in the next couple of months, with many traders looking for the best penny crypto to explode.

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