CZ's return to the exchange is gaining a lot of attention! Trump's pardon boosts Polymarket's prediction probability to 62%.

Speculation about the return of mainstream CEX founder CZ to the position of CEO rapidly intensified after U.S. President Donald Trump officially announced a pardon on October 23. Betting activity on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket surged, showing that the probability of CZ returning to the mainstream CEX before December 31 had risen to 62%. This event is the latest bold action in the Trump administration's “end of the encryption war” policy, completely reversing the near-zero expectations for CZ's return prior to the announcement of the pardon.

Presidential Pardon Sparks Return Speculation: Probability Soars on Polymarket

CZ was previously sentenced to four months in prison for money laundering violations and resigned as CEO of the CEX in 2023. Since his release in September 2024, he has denied the existence of a “lifetime ban” preventing him from holding executive positions in the encryption field. On October 23, the news that U.S. President Trump officially granted him a full pardon completely ignited market speculation about CZ's return.

The data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of CZ returning as CEO of a mainstream exchange before December 31 surged to 62% within just 7 hours, with the vast majority of participants choosing the “yes” option.

• Surge in trading volume: The prediction market has recorded over $47,000 in trading volume, indicating a strong interest in the future prospects after CZ's pardon.
• The market sentiment reversed in an instant: A few hours before the amnesty was officially announced, the probability of CZ's return was almost zero. But after the news was released, the market sentiment almost instantly turned around.

Polymarket's active betting indicates that investors view the presidential pardon as removing a significant legal obstacle in CZ's career.

Trump's “Pro-Encryption” Signal and the Recovery of CEX

The presidential pardon obtained by CZ is widely seen as an important part of the Trump administration's efforts to “end the war on encryption,” a war that is considered to have been initiated by the previous administration.

The pardon is considered one of the boldest encryption-related actions taken since Trump returned to office. This move significantly alleviated the regulatory pressure surrounding global exchanges. After the pardon, U.S. entities of mainstream CEX also resumed fiat operations, marking the first significant recovery of fiat since 2023, further confirming the shift in policy direction.

Projects previously supported by CZ (such as ASTER) performed excellently after the pardon news, outperforming the market by nearly 14%, indicating that the market is actively betting on the value reassessment of projects associated with CZ.

Industry Polarization: Intense Debate Between Supporters and Critics

CZ's pardon has sparked vastly different reactions in the encryption community and politics, highlighting the political sensitivity of encryption regulation.

Supporters: Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson publicly congratulated CZ, calling the pardon “a correction of severe injustice,” and criticized the previous administration for weaponizing the judicial system against encryption innovators. This represents the expectations of some industry personnel for more lenient regulation and reduced government intervention.

On the critics' side: Senator Elizabeth Warren condemned Trump's decision as “corruption” and again called for stricter oversight of digital asset exchanges. CZ subsequently responded, urging the senator to “get the facts straight” before making unfounded allegations. This debate reflects the significant political divide that the encryption industry still faces within Washington.

Conclusion

Trump's presidential pardon of CZ has fundamentally changed the political and professional fate of this former mainstream CEX founder, leading to a surge in betting odds on prediction markets to 62%. This is not only a significant turning point in CZ's personal history but also a powerful signal of a shift in U.S. crypto regulatory policy. The strong market expectations for CZ's return may further boost confidence in CEX and its associated projects. However, this controversial pardon decision is bound to intensify the political tug-of-war between regulators and the industry.

Disclaimer: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make cautious decisions.