Bitcoin Price Prediction: Nordea's €648 billion get on board, the key catalyst for the next round of pump?

Nordea Bank, with a scale of 648 billion euros in Europe, has launched a Bitcoin-linked fund, marking an increasing shift of institutional investors towards digital assets. The Federal Reserve (FED) has lowered the Intrerest Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4%. Although the market reaction has been tepid, analysts at 21Shares point out that historically, Bitcoin prices in November tend to perform strongly, with an average pump of over 46%.

Nordea 6480 billion euros giant opens BTC trading

One of the largest banks in Europe, Nordea Bank, with assets amounting to 648 billion euros, has now allowed customers to trade funds linked to Bitcoin, marking a clear shift towards digital assets for the bank. Nordea Bank stated that the cryptocurrency market has matured and can provide safer and more transparent investment options. This statement comes from a Nordic financial giant with a history of over 200 years, whose weight far exceeds that of typical technology companies or emerging financial institutions.

Although Nordea Bank does not provide investment advice, it will allow trading in Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) that track the price of Bitcoin. This move responds to the growing demand from institutions for regulated cryptocurrency investments, with large banks like JPMorgan and Danske Bank also exploring similar investment products. The application of Bitcoin in the European banking sector is continuing to accelerate, and this trend provides strong fundamental support for Bitcoin price predictions.

What does a scale of 648 billion euros mean? This is equivalent to about 700 billion dollars, a massive pool of funds capable of impacting global financial markets. Even if only 1% of clients choose to allocate to Bitcoin-related products, it would generate a potential demand of 7 billion dollars. Considering that crypto assets typically account for 1-5% of institutional portfolios, Nordea's opening could bring in billions or even tens of billions of dollars in new funds to the market.

More importantly, Nordea's actions have a demonstration effect. The European banking industry has always been known for its conservatism, and Nordea, as the largest bank in the Nordic region, opening Bitcoin trading may prompt other traditional banks to follow suit. If large European banks such as Swedish banks, Swiss banks, and BNP Paribas successively open similar services, it will create a domino effect, bringing a long-term bullish logic to Bitcoin price predictions.

Nordea Bank's statement that “the cryptocurrency market has matured” is itself a strong signal. This indicates that traditional financial institutions' views on Bitcoin have shifted from “speculative bubble” to “mature asset class.” This change in perception is more important than the inflow of funds, as it lays the ideological foundation for larger-scale institutional allocations in the future.

The Federal Reserve (FED) cuts interest rate 4% liquidity injection into the crypto market

The Federal Reserve (FED) lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4%, but the market reacted calmly due to widespread expectations. FED Chairman Powell stated that officials still have differences regarding further rate cuts in December. As a result of this news, Bitcoin dropped by about 2.4%. This market reaction appears negative, but it actually reflects a short-term adjustment of 'good news fully discounted' rather than a deterioration of the fundamentals.

Analysts warn that uncertainty in policies may limit liquidity flowing into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. However, some remain optimistic. 21Shares analyst Matt Mena points out that historically, Bitcoin prices have often performed strongly in November, with an average pump of over 46%. This historical statistic provides seasonal support for Bitcoin price predictions.

Despite the short-term price weakness, economists predict that by the end of the year, lower interest rates will reignite demand for digital assets, which could drive Bitcoin prices back to historical highs. The logic chain of rate cuts is clear: lower interest rates reduce the cost of capital, making borrowing cheaper; at the same time, the yields on traditional fixed-income products are falling, forcing investors to seek higher-yielding assets; Bitcoin, as a high-risk, high-reward asset, naturally becomes one of the targets for capital inflow.

From a macroeconomic cycle perspective, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes from 0% to 5.5% in 2022 to the rate cut cycle beginning in 2024 marks a fundamental shift in monetary policy. Historically, rate cut cycles have often been accompanied by bull markets in risk assets. After the Federal Reserve began to cut rates in 2019, Bitcoin surged from $3,000 to $69,000 in 2021. Whether the current rate cut cycle will repeat this pattern is the most critical macro variable in Bitcoin price forecasting.

Germany's AfD promotes Bitcoin as a national strategic asset

The largest opposition party in Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), proposed to recognize Bitcoin as a national asset and urged lawmakers to distinguish it from other cryptocurrencies under the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation. The motion argues that strict regulation could hinder innovation and undermine Germany's position in the digital finance sector. This proposal holds significant symbolic meaning in Bitcoin price predictions, as it represents a national-level recognition of Bitcoin's value.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has also called for maintaining the VAT exemption, protecting Bitcoin holders' right to self-defense, and retaining a 12-month tax exemption for long-term Bitcoin holders. Legislators have also suggested incorporating Bitcoin into Germany's national reserves, similar to gold reserves. This proposal to place Bitcoin alongside gold indicates that the German political sphere is beginning to seriously consider the feasibility of Bitcoin as a national reserve asset.

This move is seen as a sign of the increasing political support for Bitcoin from European countries, boosting investor optimism and market sentiment. If Germany really incorporates Bitcoin into its national reserves, it will set a precedent for major global economies. As the largest economy in Europe and the fourth largest in the world, Germany's demonstration effect may prompt other countries to follow suit. Currently, some states in the United States have proposed similar legislation, and if Germany and the U.S. advance simultaneously, it will create a transatlantic wave of national reserves in Bitcoin.

From a practical perspective, the German government currently holds approximately 50,000 Bitcoins (a large sale of Bitcoin in 2024 caused controversy). If the AfD's proposal is adopted, Germany may begin to accumulate Bitcoin again, and even convert a portion of its existing gold reserves into Bitcoin. Germany currently holds about 3,364 tons of gold, valued at approximately 250 billion dollars. If 1% is converted to Bitcoin, it would create a buying demand of 2.5 billion dollars.

Triple Benefits from European Institutions and Policies

Nordea opens a €648 billion fund pool: directly providing trading channels

Germany's AfD Promotes National Reserve Legislation: Political acknowledgment of Bitcoin's status

The EU MiCA framework clarifies: Regulatory clarity attracts institutional funds

Technical Analysis: Symmetrical Triangle Showdown at 111,500

(Source: Trading View)

BTC/USD is currently trading at approximately $109,213, consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, which typically indicates that significant price volatility is imminent. The price recently rebounded from $106,300, where the lower shadow is relatively long, reflecting strong demand from buyers. The symmetrical triangle is one of the most reliable breakout patterns in technical analysis, formed by price oscillations narrowing down, usually leading to a directional breakout near the tip of the triangle.

The resistance level is at $111,500, coinciding with the 50-day moving average, and previous rebound attempts have all been blocked. The repeated testing at this price level has failed to break through, indicating significant selling pressure in this area. However, each test has consumed a portion of the selling pressure, and once all profit-taking and stop-loss orders are cleared, a breakout will become easier. In terms of trading volume, the volume during the recent tests at $111,500 has gradually shrunk, which is often a sign of accumulation before a breakout.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41, rebounding from the oversold territory, suggesting that momentum is improving. The RSI has bounced back from the oversold area below 30 to above 40, indicating that selling pressure has been fully released and buying interest is starting to enter. If the RSI rises further and breaks above the neutral level of 50, it will confirm that bullish momentum is gaining dominance.

If the closing price is above 111,500 USD, it may trigger a pump, with a target price range of 115,900 USD to 119,700 USD. This target price is based on the measurement rule of a symmetrical triangle: calculate the height at the widest part of the triangle (approximately 8,000 USD), and then add it to the breakout point to get 111,500 + 8,000 = 119,500 USD. Considering market friction, 119,700 USD is a reasonable upper limit for the target range.

If it is blocked and falls back, the price of Bitcoin may drop to $106,300 or even $103,500. $106,300 is the starting point of the recent rebound and also the lower boundary support of the symmetrical triangle. If it breaks below, the next support level is at $103,500, which is a deeper technical support level. Traders may consider going long above $111,600, with a stop-loss set below $108,500. This setup offers a risk-reward ratio of about 1:3, which aligns with the risk management principles of professional trading.

As volatility tightens near the apex of the triangle, Bitcoin appears poised for a directional breakout that could determine its course in November. In terms of timeframes, symmetrical triangles typically break out between two-thirds to three-quarters of the way through their formation, and the current pattern indicates that this moment is likely within the next 1 to 2 weeks.

Multiple Catalysts Resonating to Reach Historical Highs Before Year-End

The Bitcoin price forecast takes into account fundamentals, technicals, and sentiment, with the probability of hitting historical highs by the end of the year on the rise. On the fundamental side, the opening of Nordea's €648 billion fund pool, the proposal for national reserves from Germany's AfD, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle create a triple resonance of favorable conditions. On the technical side, a breakout from the symmetrical triangle is imminent, and the RSI's rebound from oversold levels indicates an improvement in momentum. On the sentiment side, although the Fear and Greed Index is in the fear stage, this often represents a buying opportunity rather than a risk.

Historical seasonal factors also support this judgment. The average pump of 46% in November, although it cannot guarantee a repeat this year, provides a probabilistic advantage. Combined with the current institutional buying, favorable policies, and technical patterns, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching a new high in November has significantly increased. Investors should closely monitor the breakout situation at the resistance level of 111,500 USD, which will be a key moment in the battle between bulls and bears.