Gate on-chain observation ( on October 31, ): Jump Crypto reduced position by 200 million USD in SOL; Abraxas Capital's short positions hit a new high.

Under the dual pressure of Trump's tariff remarks and market technical adjustments, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a severe fluctuation. On-chain data shows that the hedge fund Abraxas Capital has been continuously increasing its short positions, with the total notional value of holdings rising to $760 million, including $277 million in BTC short positions, $257 million in ETH short positions, and $76.5 million in SOL short positions. Meanwhile, highly leveraged long positions suffered a brutal liquidation, with a certain 40x leveraged BTC long whale position being fully liquidated, resulting in a loss of $6.3 million. Market volatility has sharply risen, and the battle between long and short positions at key price levels has entered a heated stage.

1. BTC Market Dynamics and Analysis

Short positions continue to strengthen, high leverage long positions face liquidation

The Bitcoin market shows a clear short positions dominance amid significant fluctuations, with several high-leverage long positions suffering devastating blows:

· Abraxas Capital's short positions hit a new high: the hedge fund opened short positions with full holdings at two addresses, depositing over 31 million USD into Hyperliquid within 3 days and continuously increasing their short positions in BTC, ETH, and SOL at short-term peaks. Currently, the main short positions at its two addresses are: BTC 277 million USD, ETH 257 million USD, SOL 76.5 million USD, with a total short position scale reaching 760 million USD, setting a recent record.

· High-leverage long positions were liquidated: a whale address took a long position of $107 million BTC with 40x leverage, and during last night's continuous decline, the position was continuously liquidated. Ultimately, a long position valued at $143 million was completely liquidated, resulting in a loss of $6.3 million. The trader used the remaining $470,000 after liquidation to continue long BTC with 40x leverage, opening a position worth $19 million, demonstrating a very high risk appetite.

· “100% Win Rate Whale” Faces Test: This whale has not made any reductions to its long positions since entering underwater yesterday. At the lowest price at 4 AM, his position had an unrealized loss of over 18 million USD, which has narrowed to 8.4 million USD with this morning's rebound. The main loss comes from a SOL position opened 3 days ago after the SOL ETF news, with a scale of 104 million USD and an unrealized loss of 6.71 million USD.

Institutional capital flows show divergence

· Jump Crypto large-scale reallocation: Jump Crypto seems to be exchanging a significant amount of SOL for BTC, transferring 1.1 million SOL (approximately $205 million) that has been unstaked to Galaxy Digital, and receiving 2,455 BTC (approximately $265 million). Such large-scale asset swaps at the institutional level are worth close attention.

· Bitcoin OG continues to reduce holdings: a certain Bitcoin OG whale has deposited 200 BTC to a CEX, worth approximately 21.94 million USD. Over the past three weeks, this whale has deposited a total of 6003 BTC to trading platforms, with a total value of about 672 million USD. The continued reduction in holdings by long-term holders puts pressure on the market.

· Strategy Large Transfer: Strategy transferred 22,704 BTC (approximately 2.45 billion USD) to multiple new wallets. Such large-scale on-chain transfers usually indicate position adjustments or institutional operations.

Smart Money Operation Strategy Adjustment

· “Air Force Commander” shifts to long positions: The address previously marked as “Air Force Commander” closed its short positions in BTC yesterday at 8 AM, recording a profit of 410,000 USD. Subsequently, the entire position shifted to long positions, simultaneously opening long positions in BTC, ETH, XRP, TRUMP, etc., with a total notional value of 53.04 million USD. This address was primarily focused on short positions in the past; this complete shift to long positions holds significant signal meaning.

· “100% Win Rate Whale” closes position for profit: The opposing address opened a 40x leveraged short position on BTC during Trump’s tariff announcement and finally closed the position after a rollercoaster market, making a profit of $208,624. Overall, this Whale has earned a total of $8.89 million through holding positions.

2. ETH Market Dynamics and Analysis

Whale operations show significant differentiation, institutions continue to accumulate

The Ethereum market shows a complex flow of funds amid volatility, with significant divergence in whale operating strategies:

· Huang Licheng continues to roll over positions with escalating losses: Huang Licheng continues to increase positions to average down his ETH long positions and deposited $14,000 into Hyperliquid, which has all been used for adding positions. Currently, the notional value of his holdings has dropped to $7.66 million, with a floating loss of about 30%, an average price of $3,881, and a liquidation price of $3,750. His principal once reached $1.9 million, with total holdings peaking at $22.31 million, now reduced to $360,000.

· The smart money that bravely went long on ETH after the “1011 flash crash” remains steadfast: this address has increased its long position in Ethereum, bringing the total holdings to 19,383.25 coins (approximately $7.33 million), with all orders executed. The current opening price is $3,741.34, the liquidation price is $3,219.96, and the floating profit is $654,000. Its insistence on holding provides a certain level of long positions confidence to the market.

· BitMine level accumulation continues: two newly created wallets have received 44,036 ETH from CEX and BitGo, worth 166.76 million USD, likely belonging to BitMine. Despite increased market fluctuations, institutional-level funds continue to accumulate Ethereum.

Changes in Long-Term Holder Behavior

· Whale becomes active again after a period of silence: a certain whale withdrew 9,000 ETH from a CEX after being silent for three months, valued at approximately 34.66 million USD. This whale also staked 15,127 ETH on Lido Finance, valued at approximately 58.4 million USD. Such sudden activity after a long period of silence often has signaling significance.

· Multiple high-buy low-sell investors cut losses and exit: A whale that repeatedly high-bought and low-sold ETH has cut losses and sold 1531 ETH (approximately 5.65 million USD), with an average selling price of 3691 USD and an average entry price of 4094 USD, resulting in a loss of 617,000 USD after holding for two weeks. The exit of investors who continuously make operational mistakes may indicate that the market is approaching a phase bottom.

· Ancient whales continue to sell: After 11 months, a certain whale address 0x1b57 once again bought 5,580 ETH (approximately 21.75 million USD). Meanwhile, a whale that participated in the ETH ICO and obtained 1 million ETH has been selling since the beginning of the year, “not fearing fluctuations due to low costs”; its ETH cost is as low as 0.31 USD per coin.

3. Other Altcoin Market Dynamics and Analysis

Public Chain Ecosystem: SOL Faces Long and Short Position Battles

Solana has become a battleground for fierce competition between long positions and short positions, with a clear divergence in institutional-level funding:

· Jump Crypto significantly reduced its holdings of SOL: Jump Crypto transferred 1.1 million SOL (approximately $205 million) to Galaxy Digital and exchanged it for BTC, indicating its cautious attitude towards the short-term trend of SOL. Such large-scale adjustments by market makers put pressure on the price of SOL.

· “100% win rate Whale” SOL Position suffers significant loss: The Whale's SOL 10x leverage long position amounts to $104 million, with an unrealized loss of $6.71 million (-64.4%), becoming the largest source of loss in its portfolio. The timing of its significant buildup after the favorable news for the SOL ETF is questionable.

· Abraxas Capital fully shorts SOL: The hedge fund has established a $76.5 million short position on SOL, which correlates with its short positions on BTC and ETH, demonstrating a bearish sentiment towards the overall market.

Meme Coins and Specific Projects: Accelerated Capital Rotation

· TRUMP gains institutional attention: The number one Whale on the TRUMP Holdings list opened long positions at the bottom after the TRUMP rise at the price level of 6.8 USD on the 29th at 4 o'clock, and continued rolling positions to the price level of 8.2 USD. The current notional value of the position is approximately 20 million USD, with an average price of 7.4 USD, an unrealized profit of 2.32 million USD, and a return rate of 110%.

· VALOR has become the largest holding of the official Trump Meme coin team: The token VALOR, issued on the America Launchpad platform, has now become the largest holding in the official Trump Meme coin team's wallet (second only to Trump). As of now, a total of 27.37 million VALOR (approximately $240,000) has been transferred to the team's wallet.

· PUMP has seen significant accumulation: a certain whale address withdrew 1.05 billion PUMP from CEX, valued at 5.13 million USD. The wallet currently holds 2.38 billion PUMP, valued at 10.65 million USD, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards a specific Meme coin.

XPL Long and Short Showdown Intense

· “Suspected HYPE Listing Insider” Whale Deeply Involved in Floating Loss: This whale continues to increase its 5x leveraged XPL long position, with the average position price dropping to $0.33, and the position size reaching $8.22 million, currently showing a floating loss of $1.14 million, with a fluctuation loss of 70%. This address has been continuously increasing its XPL long position against the trend within 4 days, while lowering the average price, and the current position size has already topped the XPL contract position leaderboard on Hyperliquid.

· Abraxas Capital becomes the largest short position in XPL: This hedge fund holds the largest short position in XPL contracts on Hyperliquid, with an average holding price of $0.88, currently realizing a floating profit of $14.1 million, with a return rate exceeding 1000%. Its confrontation with long positions whales in XPL has become the focus of market attention.

4. Market Overview and Trend Analysis

Overview: Institutional short positions dominate market sentiment

The current market is in a typical short positions dominated phase, with main characteristics including:

· Hedge fund short positions hit a new high: Abraxas Capital's $760 million short position scale has set a recent record, and its firm bearish stance on the market has a significant impact on market sentiment.

· High-leverage long positions face liquidation: Multiple liquidations of 40x high-leverage long positions indicate a sharp rise in market Volatility and a significant decline in risk appetite. The reduction in leverage may create conditions for a healthy adjustment in the market.

· Institutional funds are frequently adjusting positions: From Jump Crypto exchanging SOL for BTC, to the on-chain transfer of $2.45 billion worth of Bitcoin, the frequent repositioning of institutional-level funds indicates a divergence in their outlook for the future market.

Trend Analysis: Key Support Levels Face Severe Testing

Based on on-chain data and position distribution, the market trends for the next 1-3 trading days are projected as follows:

· Bitcoin Long and Short Tipping Point: BTC is facing a severe test at the support level of $108,000; if it fails to hold, it may drop to the range of $105,000 to $106,000. The resistance above is at $112,000 to $115,000.

· Key positions for Ethereum: ETH needs to hold the 3700 USD support; if it breaks down, it may test the range of 3500 to 3600 USD. Close attention should be paid to the liquidation risk of Huang Licheng's 7.66 million USD long positions.

· Risk of fluctuation in altcoins: Mainstream altcoins like SOL may face greater adjustments, with a focus on the closing behavior of the “100% win rate Whale” $104 million SOL long positions. The volatility of coins like XPL, which are engaged in fierce long and short positions battles, may further amplify.

· Risk Warning: Be cautious of the follow-up effects of Trump's tariff policy, as well as the potential short covering market triggered by Abraxas Capital's $760 million short positions being closed. At the same time, the chain liquidation risk of high leverage positions should still be monitored.

V. Conclusion

When Abraxas Capital increased its short position to 760 million USD, and high-leverage longs were brutally washed out in extreme fluctuations, institutional funds began large-scale adjustments and stock swaps, the market was cruelly completing the redistribution of capital. This showdown between longs and shorts is no longer just a clash of opinions, but a comprehensive contest of risk management systems, financial strength, and psychological endurance.

The cruelty of the market lies in its tendency to amplify human cognitive biases at specific moments—overconfidence, herd mentality, and loss aversion. When Huang Licheng's principal shrinks by 80% during continuous rolling positions, when the “100% win rate Whale” faces a $18 million floating loss, and when high-leverage traders lose everything overnight, we see the stark differences in various risk management strategies under extreme market conditions. In this environment of increased volatility, ordinary investors should perhaps focus more on position management and risk control, rather than blindly pursuing the short-term gains brought by high leverage. After all, in this rapidly changing market, those who can survive long-term are not the risk-taking adventurers with the highest returns, but the conservative ones with the lowest risks.