Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio drops sharply to 13; is the pre-bull market setup already underway?

On-Chain Data Analysis Platform CryptoQuant disclosed on November 11th that the Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has fallen back to around 13. This level precisely corresponds to market bottoms in mid-2021, late 2022, and early 2024. The SSR indicator measures the ratio of Bitcoin market capitalization to total stablecoin market value; a declining value indicates a large amount of “dry powder” (stablecoin reserves) waiting to enter the market.

Meanwhile, data from major centralized exchanges (CEX) show Bitcoin reserves continuing to decline while stablecoin balances rise, forming a typical accumulation signal. Analyst MorenoDV describes the current environment as providing an “asymmetric opportunity” for long-term buyers. Technical analysis suggests that if historical fractals repeat, Bitcoin could advance toward a target of $150,000.

SSR Indicator Interpretation and Historical Cycle Validation

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is a unique liquidity indicator in the cryptocurrency market, calculated as Bitcoin market cap divided by total stablecoin market cap. When SSR values decline, it indicates increased relative purchasing power of stablecoins, with substantial funds on the sidelines waiting to buy, creating potential buying pressure. The current SSR of about 13 aligns closely with several key historical turning points: after SSR bottomed at 12.8 in July 2021, Bitcoin surged from $29,000 to $69,000 within six months; in November 2022, SSR dropped to 11.5, followed by an 18-month long bull run.

The underlying logic of this indicator’s effectiveness lies in market psychology. When SSR is high, stablecoins lack purchasing power, leading to liquidity shortages and panic selling. Conversely, when SSR hits extreme lows, investors have converted assets into stablecoins, awaiting entry points, thus building “ammunition reserves.” CryptoQuant analyst emphasizes: “The current SSR level of 13 resembles the accumulation pattern before Bitcoin broke $45,000 in January 2024. This historical similarity is statistically significant.”

Exchange Data Supporting Accumulation Behavior

On-chain data further supports the accumulation hypothesis. Over the past four weeks, Bitcoin reserves on major CEX platforms decreased by 123,000 BTC, while stablecoin balances increased by $4.1 billion. This divergence often occurs at cycle bottoms. Specifically, USDT market cap hit a record high of over $112 billion, and USDC market cap recovered to $34 billion, together accounting for 82% of the stablecoin market. This expansion of stablecoins amid Bitcoin outflows clearly indicates investors are converting assets into stablecoins, waiting for better entry points.

More detailed wallet analysis shows that addresses holding 100-1,000 BTC increased holdings by 47,000 BTC over the past 30 days, while “whale” addresses holding 1,000-10,000 BTC reduced holdings by 21,000 BTC, suggesting small and medium-sized institutions are buying the dip while large holders take profits. MorenoDV notes: “From a risk-reward perspective, these moments often present asymmetric opportunities—limited downside and expanding upside as liquidity rotates back into Bitcoin. Although not exciting, this phase historically marks strong hands building positions.”

Key Indicators During Bitcoin Accumulation Phase

On-Chain Signals

• Current SSR: 13 (2021 low: 12.8)
• CEX Bitcoin reserves change: -123,000 BTC (30 days)
• Stablecoin balances increase: +$4.1 billion (30 days)
• Whale addresses reducing holdings: 21,000 BTC (30 days)

Technical Targets

• First target: $125,000 (previous high)
• Fibonacci extension: $150,000 (2.618 level)
• Critical support: 50-week EMA (currently ~$98,500)

Technical Structure and Price Target Analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a classic bullish structure. The price remains firmly above the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), which has served as a lifeline for the bull market since early 2023, with each test triggering strong rebounds. The support zone around $98,500 is particularly important, as it coincides with a historical support/resistance flip zone that has been validated three times during the 2023-2024 cycle.

Following the pattern of the 2021-2022 cycle, Bitcoin may be reenacting a “re-accumulation parabolic breakout” sequence. The first phase features SSR bottoming and sideways price action; the second phase involves volatility contraction and declining volume, setting the stage for a breakout; the third phase is driven by institutional capital breaking previous highs. The Fibonacci extension from the October 2024 low to the October 2025 high at 2.618 suggests a $150,000 target, consistent with an average 280% rally following SSR lows.

Derivatives market data supports this view: Bitcoin futures open interest increased by 15%, but funding rates remain neutral, indicating new positions are primarily spot-driven rather than leveraged speculation. The put/call ratio in options has fallen to 0.45, signaling reduced protective hedging and a return of risk appetite. This derivatives structure, combined with spot accumulation, reinforces the reliability of a breakout signal.

Risks and Allocation Strategies

Despite positive on-chain signals, investors should remain aware of three main risks: macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve’s policy shift, which may lag inflation data and dampen liquidity expectations; technical risks like a drop below $95,000 could trigger a 15-20% correction; and regulatory uncertainties, especially regarding the SEC’s review of stablecoins, which could impact market liquidity.

For different risk profiles, tailored strategies are recommended: conservative investors might gain exposure via Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) or spot ETFs to avoid private key risks; aggressive investors could consider Bitcoin mining stocks (e.g., MARA, RIOT), which typically have a beta of 1.5-2 times Bitcoin; professional investors might build a rebalancing portfolio of Bitcoin and stablecoins, adjusting positions dynamically at extreme SSR levels. All strategies should incorporate strict stop-losses, with $90,000 as a key risk control level.

Conclusion

The SSR indicator returning to historical lows, combined with exchange data confirming accumulation, points to Bitcoin being on the cusp of a new bull market. This confluence of on-chain signals, technical, and fundamental factors has historically signaled significant opportunities. Investors should recognize that the best entry points often occur during periods of market calm rather than during euphoria; this “boring accumulation” phase may be the key to long-term gains.