Bitcoin ancient whales sold off 200 million dollars in a single day, and the market is facing a test of the 96,000 dollar defense line.

On November 11, 2025, early Bitcoin investor Owen Gunden sold 700 Bitcoins through a mainstream CEX, bringing the total reduction this week to 1800 BTC (valued at approximately 200 million dollars). This move is a reflection of a large-scale selling trend among long-term holders (LTH) — the average monthly selling volume of LTH in November has reached 414,000 Bitcoins (approximately 43 billion dollars).

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 31,000 BTC, and the options market indicates that investors are strengthening their downside protection against a drop to $96,000 or even $85,000. Bitcoin is currently reported at $105,000, facing a severe test of its key support level.

Bitcoin Whale Behavior On-Chain Data Analysis

Owen Gunden's selling actions have noticeably accelerated since October, with his Bitcoin holdings decreasing from over 11,000 coins (approximately $1.4 billion) to 5,350 coins (approximately $560 million). Such a scale of holding change is clearly discernible on-chain and aligns with the overall behavior pattern of long-term holders. According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, long-term holders are defined as addresses that have held coins for more than 5 months, and these addresses are typically regarded as steadfast holders in the market, with their collective selling often carrying significant signaling implications.

Key Data for Long-term Bitcoin Holders

Monthly reduction amount: 414,000 BTC ($43 billion)

Start of reduction: Accelerate in July 2025

Price Impact: BTC fell from $126,000 to $105,000

ETF Coordination: Net outflow of 31,000 BTC

Historical Comparison: A similar pattern emerged during the tariff dispute in early 2025.

The trend of long-term holders reducing their holdings is closely related to market phases. During the first half of 2025, when Bitcoin reached a historic high of $126,000, strong institutional demand and ETF inflows were sufficient to absorb this type of selling pressure. However, the situation has reversed in the past few weeks, with ETF fund flows turning negative, making the selling by whales exert a more pronounced pressure on prices. This change in the supply-demand pattern explains why similar scale sell-offs did not prevent the previous price increases, while now they have become a downward catalyst.

Bitcoin Derivatives Market Signals and Risk Hedging

The trading activity in the options market provides another dimension of evidence for market sentiment. As of November 12, the options volume shows that the majority of traders are buying put options (short hedging), with target price levels as low as $85,000 (expiration at the end of the year) and $96,000 (expiration at the end of November). In contrast, the buying activity for call options (long) is concentrated only at the $108,000 level, with this skewed phenomenon particularly evident in the past 24 hours.

The intensification of this options skew often indicates that the market expects greater downside risk. Market makers often need to hedge in the spot market to balance risk exposure, which may further amplify price volatility. The derivatives data and outflows from the spot market form a corroborating bearish signal, increasing the likelihood of key technical levels being tested.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Key Price Level Identification

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading around $105,000, situated at the convergence of several key technical indicators. The 50-day moving average at the weekly level (around $102,000) and the 100-day moving average (around $98,000) form a preliminary support system, while the $96,000 level represents the upper boundary of the consolidation range for the third quarter of 2025. A break below this level could trigger a larger volume of stop-loss orders.

Bitcoin Key Technical Levels Distribution

Immediate resistance: $108,000 (options cluster)

Primary support: $102,000 (50-day moving average)

Key support: $96,000 (previous high converted support)

Deep support: $93,000 (200-day moving average)

Volume analysis shows that the trading volume during the recent decline is significantly higher than during the rebound period. This volume-price structure typically indicates that the sellers are in control. Momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD are both showing bearish divergence, increasing the probability of further adjustments. The market needs significant positive catalysts to break this weak technical pattern.

Macroeconomic Background and Institutional Behavior

The challenges facing Bitcoin partly stem from broader changes in the financial environment. The shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, tightening dollar liquidity conditions, and overall valuation adjustments of risk assets all put pressure on Bitcoin as a high beta asset. Traditional institutional investors' portfolio rebalancing at the end of the quarter may also exacerbate the outflow pressure.

Markus Thielen, CEO of 10X Research, pointed out: “Risk managers may intervene and request to cut or reduce positions. When you send reports to investors, you may need to purchase more Nvidia.” This cross-asset rotation is indeed supported by historical data, especially in the context where Bitcoin's performance year-to-date (approximately 10% increase) significantly lags behind tech stocks (approximately 32% increase).

Bitcoin On-Chain Supply Dynamics and Long-Term Prospects

Despite facing short-term pressure, the on-chain fundamentals of Bitcoin still contain positive factors. The supply held for more than a year remains at a high of 68%, indicating that most long-term investors have not participated in this sell-off. At the same time, the number of addresses holding less than one Bitcoin continues to grow, showing that accumulation behavior at the retail level is still ongoing.

From a historical cycle perspective, profit-taking by long-term holders is a necessary part of a healthy market adjustment. In the bull market cycles of 2017 and 2021, similar scale sell-offs occurred after significant price increases, laying the foundation for the next phase of growth. Whether the current adjustment falls under this category of healthy pullback will depend on the recovery of subsequent institutional capital inflows.

Bitcoin Investment Strategies and Risk Management

In the face of the current market environment, investors should consider a layered strategy. Short-term traders can observe the rebound strength in the support range of $96,000 to $102,000 and set clear stop-loss levels; medium to long-term investors can adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy to accumulate positions through volatility. Although the cost of protection provided by the options market has increased, it still offers risk management tools for investors concerned about further downside.

The formation of a market bottom usually requires a combination of panic selling and extreme pessimistic sentiment, which have not yet fully manifested in the current situation. Therefore, maintaining a certain amount of cash reserves to enter at better prices may be a prudent choice in the current environment. The fundamental value proposition of Bitcoin has not fundamentally changed, but the forces of the market cycle require investors to have patience and discipline.