XRP吸金8亿却只pump3%! ETF失灵还是Ripple出大事？

Despite institutional investors showing strong interest in XRP, the Token has struggled to respond meaningfully to the launch of a large number of new ETFs, and XRP price predictions remain unclear. In recent days, more than 6 ETFs linked to XRP have been listed, with total assets nearing $800 million—however, XRP has only pumped 3% in the past week.

Why can't the 800 million dollar ETF inflow drive XRP?

More than 6 ETFs linked to XRP have been launched in the past few days, with a total assets under management nearing $800 million, which is quite a significant figure in the cryptocurrency ETF market. In comparison, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs also experienced similar inflows during their initial launch periods, but their price reactions were much more pronounced than that of XRP. The price of the Bitcoin ETF rose over 10% in the first week after its launch, while the Ethereum ETF recorded an increase of about 8%. In contrast, XRP has only risen by 3% in the past week, and this reaction can be described as “lukewarm.”

Wall Street shows no signs of slowing down in its demand for cryptocurrencies, which makes the lackluster performance of XRP even more puzzling. Institutional investors are often seen as “smart money,” and their large purchases typically signal an impending price surge. However, the influx of $800 million in institutional funds failed to significantly boost the price of XRP, and this anomaly has sparked widespread discussion in the market.

One possible reason for XRP's muted reaction is the lack of retail participation, as most of the recent demand seems to come from institutional flows. Institutional investors typically buy cryptocurrencies through vehicles like ETFs rather than directly in the spot market. The operation of ETFs involves Authorized Participants (AP) creating shares in the primary market, and while this process ultimately requires purchasing the underlying assets, the immediate impact on the spot market may be diluted. Additionally, institutional investors' buying strategies tend to be more cautious and diversified, not concentrating on large purchases in a short time frame like retail investors do, which also weakens the price-driving effect.

Another possible explanation is that the circulating supply of XRP is relatively large (about 58 billion), requiring a larger scale of capital inflow to have a significant impact on the price. Although the capital inflow of 800 million USD is considerable in absolute terms, it accounts for less than 0.6% relative to XRP's market capitalization of about 135 billion USD (calculated at the current price of 2.33 USD). In contrast, the capital inflows for Bitcoin and Ethereum at the time of ETF launches accounted for a higher proportion of their market capitalizations, leading to a more noticeable price reaction.

4 billion USD in open contracts hinting at a pre-explosion?

(Source: Coinglass)

The open interest for XRP futures is currently at $4 billion, a figure that is the same as in June, when it was just days away from XRP soaring to its 2025 high of $3.65. This similarity has sparked speculation that if retail investors start to re-enter, a breakout could still occur.

Open interest refers to the total value of all unsettled futures contracts, and this indicator reflects the market's activity and participants' confidence. The 4 billion USD in open interest shows that, despite a muted response in spot prices, participation in the derivatives market remains high. More importantly, this figure is consistent with the levels from June, which was just before XRP experienced a significant pump.

Historically, the stability or growth of open interest often signals that prices are about to fluctuate. When open interest remains high, it indicates that market participants are accumulating positions in anticipation of a triggering event. This was the case in June, when open interest consolidated around 4 billion dollars for several weeks, and XRP suddenly surged, skyrocketing to 3.65 dollars in a short period. The current level of open interest is similar to that at the time, providing a historical reference for the bullish argument.

However, the high level of open interest can also be a double-edged sword. If market sentiment suddenly turns negative, high open interest may trigger a chain of liquidations, leading to a sharp price drop. Therefore, while the current level of open interest suggests potential upside opportunities, investors also need to be cautious of downside risks.

The Historical Relationship Between Open Contracts and Prices

June Case: After the open interest reached 4 billion USD, XRP surged to 3.65 USD within a few days, with a pump of over 50%.

Current Status: The open contracts have reached 4 billion USD again, but the price has not yet initiated, possibly in a brewing stage.

Key Difference: In June, retail participation was higher, while currently it is mainly institution-led, lacking retail driving force.

The lack of retail participation is a key factor making it difficult for the current XRP price to rise. In the cryptocurrency market, retail investors often play the role of “price movers”; their buying behavior is more concentrated and emotional, which can create strong buying pressure in a short period of time. In contrast, institutional investors, while having large amounts of capital, tend to adopt more rational and diversified buying strategies, thus having limited impact on short-term prices. To trigger a surge similar to June's explosive increase, XRP needs to regain the attention and participation of retail investors.

Technical Breakthrough Key: $2.40 Lifeline

(Source: Trading View)

From the daily chart, if the XRP price confirms a breakout from the descending channel, it may trigger a trend reversal for XRP. To achieve this goal, the price needs to rise to at least 2.40 USD. In this case, the first target may be the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is 2.60 USD. If the upward momentum strengthens, we expect the price to see a more pronounced pump, reaching 3.10 USD.

The descending channel is a common price pattern in technical analysis, consisting of two parallel trendlines, with prices oscillating downward within the channel. XRP has been operating within the descending channel since its peak of $3.65 in June, facing selling pressure each time the price touches the upper boundary of the channel, while gaining support when it touches the lower boundary. A breakout from the descending channel usually signifies the end of the downward trend and the beginning of a new upward rally.

Why is $2.40 so critical? This price level is the position of the upper bound of the descending channel and has been a resistance level that has been tested multiple times previously without breaking through. If XRP can close above $2.40 on the daily chart, it will confirm a valid breakout, opening up upward space towards $2.60 or even $3.10. Conversely, if the breakout fails, the price may retreat back into the channel and continue to oscillate, possibly even testing the support near $2.00.

The 200-day EMA is at $2.60, which is one of the most important long-term trend indicators in technical analysis. When the price is above the 200-day EMA, it is generally considered a long-term upward trend; conversely, it indicates a downward trend. XRP has been below the 200-day EMA since June, showing a bearish long-term trend. If it can break above $2.40 and reclaim the 200-day EMA at $2.60, it will signal a reversal of the long-term trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) issued a buy signal after breaking through the 14-day moving average. The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes. When the RSI crosses above its moving average, it usually signifies that buying pressure is beginning to strengthen. The current breakout of the RSI adds a bullish signal to the technical aspect of XRP, and combined with the historical similarities of open interest, it suggests that XRP may be brewing a wave of upward movement.

Retail investors returning is the trigger point

Therefore, XRP seems to have started to pump. However, for true explosive growth, the re-entry of retail investors is an indispensable factor. While institutional funds provide underlying support, the lack of participation from retail investors makes it difficult for prices to form sustained upward momentum. If XRP can break through $2.40 and attract market attention, it may draw retail investors back in. At that time, combined with the $4 billion in high open contracts, the price prediction target for XRP of $3.10 or even higher levels will become possible.