Analysis: BTC Rebound has not broken through the "Phase Bull-Bear" boundary, and some investors are shifting towards the view of trend ending.

On October 22, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) of BTC is regarded as the dividing line for “phase bull-bear” or the market sentiment bull-bear judgment standard. When the price quickly rebounds after reaching STH-RP, it indicates that new investors not only did not consider selling when approaching the cost price, but also attracted more buying interest, which is a sign of the market's confidence in future trends. The changes in sentiment during a trend are usually divided into the following three stages: Stage 1: BTC slightly breaks below STH-RP and then rebounds sharply; at this time, investors are confident in the trend, believing that the short-term pullback is an opportunity; Stage 2: BTC significantly breaks below STH-RP and then slightly rebounds; at this time, investor confidence weakens, but some investors still believe that the trend has not ended; Stage 3: BTC rebounds but fails to break through STH-RP; at this time, investors develop consistent doubts about the trend, and once the rebound returns to the cost line, they tend to exit to avoid risks. From September 26 to 28, BTC pulled back to around $109,000 (slightly below STH-RP), and then strongly rebounded to $125,000 (significant rebound), corresponding to Stage 1. On October 17, the STH-RP price was $113,000, and at this time BTC pulled back to around $104,000, which is considered a significant break below; last night, it surged to touch STH-RP and then stopped to fall back. Analysts believe the market is currently in Stage 2, or between Stage 2 and Stage 3.