Viewpoint: CEX reserves, Miner reserves, and stablecoin flow indicate that funds are fleeing the market.

On November 4th, according to research agency XWIN, Bitcoin CEX reserves have risen for the first time in six weeks, indicating that investors are reallocating Bitcoin back to CEX, which is typically a sign of profit-taking or risk aversion. Historical data shows that this influx of funds suggests traders are preparing for potential market fluctuations and adopting defensive strategies. Meanwhile, miner reserves have dropped to their lowest level since mid-2025, indicating that miners are being forced to sell Bitcoin to cover operational costs due to energy subsidies and tax credits still being paused during the government shutdown. Additionally, stablecoin withdrawal volumes from CEX have surged to all-time highs, highlighting that funds are shifting from risk assets to safe-haven assets pegged to the US dollar. In other words, liquidity is flowing back from the public market to stable store of value means. The three indicators of CEX reserves, miner reserves, and stablecoin withdrawals together form a consistent narrative: capital is fleeing risk, and on-chain liquidity is contracting. Investor sentiment also reflects this dynamic. The “Fear and Greed Index” has fallen to the “Extreme Fear” level, echoing the levels seen during the liquidity crisis in the banking sector in 2023. XWIN indicates that while the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts a brief rebound in the market once the economic shutdown ends, on-chain data suggests that the recovery of confidence and capital will take longer. For Bitcoin, this period is not simply a Buy the Dips opportunity, but a stress test of faith, liquidity, and patience in a market environment of fiscal failure.