Analysis: The U.S. government may find it difficult to "open up" in the short term, and the probability of ending the shutdown significantly rises after November 16.

On November 6, according to Polymarket data, the probability that “the U.S. government shutdown will end after November 16” has significantly risen to 44%, which suggests that it will be difficult for the U.S. government to “open its doors” in the short term. Additionally: the probability of the shutdown ending between November 4 and 7 is currently reported at 3%, the probability for ending between November 8 and 11 is 22%; and the probability for ending between November 12 and 15 is 30%. The U.S. federal government “shutdown” will enter its 37th day today at 1 PM Beijing time, setting a new record for the longest “shutdown” in history. Previously, the U.S. government was “shut down” for 35 days from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019. The Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S. remain deadlocked, failing to pass a temporary funding bill proposed by the Republicans in 13 votes in the Senate.