MicroStrategy (#Strategy / MSTR) currently in this round's top structure, almost mirrors the performance before and after the previous BTC bull market.

It's not the price, but the structure itself.
Let's start with a few highly similar aspects.
First, BTC's subsequent price keeps hitting new highs, but MSTR does not.
On the contrary, MSTR forms a lower high, a typical relative weakness turning into weakness structure.
Second, from the all-time high, MSTR's maximum drawdown is also over 70%.
This magnitude has already been fully demonstrated by the market in the previous cycle.
In other words, purely from the perspective of "carving a boat to seek a sword"—
the current MicroStrategy's continuous large-scale buying of coins is more like buying time and space for a subsequent rebound in stock prices.
The logic is not complicated.
Once MicroStrategy stops buying coins,
the market's "narrative anchor" for it will instantly disappear.
By then, investors will naturally have a question in mind:
"Is this guy about to sell coins?"
Just like when QT stops, everyone starts fantasizing about QE;
When MicroStrategy stops buying, the market subconsciously associates—
whether the other end of the cycle is coming.
So, from this perspective,
continuous buying of coins is itself like maintaining a narrative stabilizer.
Based on this highly similar structural comparison,
it is not ruled out that MSTR may experience a weak, emotion-driven rebound in the next one to two months.
But if we follow the "carving a boat" path from the last cycle,
the direction after the rebound
will still be towards the $60 target area.
Of course, I must emphasize:
This is just a structural comparison of "carving a boat to seek a sword," and has no market reference value.
I'm not predicting,
just simply observing—
the two cycles' patterns are a bit too similar.
Will the market play it out again?
I don't know.
But the structure is right here,
those who understand will naturally know how to respond.