One day after launching a counteroffensive in Pakistan, India agreed to cease military conflict.



In this round of the India-Pakistan conflict, India used various excuses as a pretext, carried out a prolonged period of provocation, and ultimately launched military action against Pakistan on May 7.
India actively provoked this war, and there must be considerations behind it. Although the specific reasons are unknown, it is evident that it is based on certain demands and calculations. India may believe that as long as it wins, it can achieve its goals, even if it requires paying a certain price.
However, the development of the war was beyond India's expectations. On the evening of May 10, just 4 days after the outbreak of war, India announced its agreement to ceasefire, and both India and Pakistan immediately halted hostilities. Many people had not even learned of the news of the India-Pakistan war before both sides had already laid down their arms.
Today, the true demands that India had when it initiated the war are no longer known, as India certainly will not mention them again. However, it is certain that India has not achieved its goals, as these demands are clearly based on the premise of winning the war. Even India itself believes that it must first win before it has the face to speak up.
The actual situation, however, is that India has suffered a comprehensive defeat. On the day of the outbreak of war on May 7, India lost 6 expensive fighter jets, including 3 Rafales, 1 Su-30, and 1 MiG-29, which were reportedly shot down by China's J-10C. At the same time, fierce fighting also broke out between the ground forces of both sides, with the headquarters of the Indian Army's 12th Infantry Brigade and several military facilities being destroyed, leading to multiple explosions and power outages in the Pakistan-controlled Kashmir region, and killing dozens of Pakistani civilians.
After the Air Force's defeat, India dared not deploy manned fighter jets anymore and instead sent drones into battle. However, on May 8 and 9, Pakistan shot down 29 and 48 Indian drones respectively, totaling 77, all of which were expensive large military drones, not civilian toy-grade ones. Pakistan displayed a large number of wreckage from Indian drones, while India remained silent on this and instead claimed that Pakistan deployed 300 to 400 drones to attack 36 locations in India from the night of the 8th to the 9th. However, India did not show any wreckage of the Pakistani drones they claimed to have shot down, nor did they provide any evidence; no related information could be found online, and searches only yielded the wreckage of Indian drones displayed by Pakistan. What India showcased in the media was, in fact, the wreckage of the Chinese PL-15 air-to-air missile that shot down Indian planes, which seemed quite bizarre and logically confused.
The reason Pakistan has been able to shoot down so many Indian drones is mainly due to the deployment of the Chinese-made "Silent Hunter" laser air defense system and the LY-80 medium-range air defense missile system, which provide a comprehensive and multi-dimensional interception of Indian drones. In contrast, India lacks effective countermeasures against drones.
Seeing that the drone war also failed miserably, India was in a hurry, and even once announced that it planned to send its navy to bomb the Pakistani coastline with its own aircraft carrier, which is ridiculous. Because India and Pakistan share a land border, the aircraft carrier, as powerful as it sounds, is essentially just a moving airfield. Due to weight limitations, the performance of fighters taking off from aircraft carriers was completely crushed by land aircraft. The only advantage of an aircraft carrier is that it can move and attack in the ocean, but if the fighter planes taking off from the land airfield cannot win, then the aircraft carrier will be sent to death, and even the aircraft carrier itself may be sunk. India can even say this kind of brainless words, because the navy is the only branch of its military that has not yet been dispatched, although it is basically useless to fight the Pakistani navy, but there is no way to do it in a hurry, at least say something to give an explanation to the angry people at home.
Unlike India's helplessness, Pakistan took advantage of the defensive battle over three days and decided to take the initiative. Before the counterattack, Pakistan hinted to the world; the defense minister, who originally stated that the India-Pakistan situation would escalate but that a nuclear war was unlikely, changed his tune, saying that if India continued to escalate the situation, a nuclear war could break out. This was a suggestion for major powers to intervene and mediate.
On May 10, Pakistan announced the launch of a military operation codenamed "Impregnable" in response to India's continued provocations. The name of the operation suggests that Pakistan is simply trying to defend itself and that the blame for the war lies solely with the ongoing provocations on the part of India. But in fact, this was a large-scale attack on India launched by Pakistan, not only by means of large-scale air strikes, but also by sending a large number of ground troops to fire artillery at India. In just a few hours, a large number of Indian military installations were bombed, resulting in the death of a senior Indian official. At the same time, a cyberattack launched by Pakistan has brought down 70% of India's power grid, triggering a nationwide blackout. In addition, Pakistani fighter jets crossed the border between the two countries and entered Indian airspace to launch airstrikes on air bases in the Indian states of Gujarat, Ambala and Jalandal. The Pakistan Air Force's JF-17 Thunder fighter jets launched "hypersonic missiles" to destroy India's Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft missile system deployed in Adampur, which is worth $1.7 billion and is India's vital core military equipment. Then India was shot down with another fighter jet, rumored to be a Rafale, while the pilot was captured by the Pakistani side. Pakistani media also announced that its own drone flew over the Indian capital, Delhi. Since Pakistan's counterattack on the morning of May 10, it has achieved major results in succession, and the Indian side has been beaten unilaterally.
On the evening of May 10, after being beaten for a whole day, India announced a ceasefire, and Pakistan, which was also attacking India, announced a ceasefire as well. The direct reason for the ceasefire was a tweet from U.S. President Trump, stating that after "one night" of communication and negotiation, both India and Pakistan agreed to a complete ceasefire. The tweet was sent at 7:55 PM (Beijing time) on May 10. The night in the U.S. corresponds to daytime here, and Trump's reference to "one night" of negotiation refers to our daytime negotiations on May 10. In other words, after Pakistan launched a major counterattack, the U.S. initiated peace talks a few hours later, and then both India and Pakistan quickly agreed.
The reason why the Indian side agreed to the armistice was very simple, because India had suffered heavy losses in the offensive of the previous days and again in the defense on the 10th, and it was too far from its own expectations before the start of the war to fight. India is not ready to go to war with Pakistan in the face of such a tragic exchange, and the war that India expects is to unilaterally beat Pakistan by itself, not to be unilaterally beaten by Pakistan. Moreover, the big brother behind India's war is the United States, and India dares to go to war only with the support of the United States, because it is obvious that there is a China behind Pakistan, and it is impossible for India to go to war without the support of the United States. Now the battle situation on the front line is a fiasco, and the United States behind it has come out and said not to fight, so it can only stop fighting. Taking the initiative to provoke a war, and then suffering heavy losses, and then quickly agreeing to a cease-fire and peace talks, India has lost a lot of face, and it will never be able to return to its own reasons for going to war, no matter what it says, it will contradict its own initiative to cease fire and sue for peace in less than 4 days, and the more high-sounding the reasons for war, the more it will not be rounded. But there is no way, it can only be like this.
The reason for India's agreement to a ceasefire is very obvious, but why did Pakistan also agree to a ceasefire? After all, it is clear that the situation is one-sidedly in favor of Pakistan, with the situation looking very good for them. Why should a ceasefire happen just because India says so? This is because the power gap between the two countries is too large, to a ridiculous extent. From the basic data such as population, total GDP, per capita GDP, foreign exchange reserves, external debt, military expenditure, area of land under actual control, types of territory, and climate conditions, Pakistan is far behind India.
So far, Pakistan has indeed been beating India, but this is relying on advanced air force equipment purchased from China, not Pakistan's actual strength. Of course, India's military strength is also dependent on weapons purchased from Europe, the United States and Russia, and it is no better than Pakistan. However, if Pakistan falls into a full-scale war with India, and the two sides are about to start a land war, it will not be like an air war, as long as it has the advantage of technological generation, it can repeatedly brush the head of the opposite side without damage, and the Pakistani side is bound to suffer losses. Moreover, India has access to Pakistani airports, and if the war lasts for a long time, Pakistan's planes will have accidents sooner or later, even if India can't beat Pakistan in an air war, because no matter how powerful your plane is, it will have to land sooner or later. Of course, even so, India will definitely suffer a big loss, there will be a very tragic exchange ratio, Pakistan's books will be blood, but the problem is that Pakistan has no money, and is not willing to exchange with India. Both India and Pakistan can purchase weapons from other countries, and they will continue to consume each other, but these weapons are certainly not given away for free, and they all have to be paid. India, on the other hand, has more foreign exchange than Pakistan, nearly 50 times more. Even if foreign debt is not taken into account, Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves now add up to only $13.7 billion, and even if all foreign debt is stopped, it will only be able to use $13.7 billion to buy arms. If India does not take into account its external debt, it can currently come up with $627.8 billion in foreign exchange. Pakistan is indeed beating India at the moment, but not to the same extent as the 50-fold exchange ratio. And even if the exchange ratio is 50 times, Pakistan will draw with India, and the foreign exchange of both sides will be exhausted, and there will be no point in continuing to fight with their own weapons without external weapon support. And for Pakistan, it doesn't matter to Pakistan how much India hurts, and if Pakistan can't gain anything from continuing to fight, then there is no point in fighting a war for Pakistan.
The reason why this war broke out was because India felt that it could win the war, and that it could get more benefits than military spending after winning, so India went to war. However, Pakistan did not feel that it would gain anything by continuing to fight, so it agreed to ceasefire and peace talks. Although Pakistan launched a large-scale attack on India on the 10th, the main thrust of the action was indeed an "iron wall," and this wave of attacks was indeed of a self-defensive nature. As far as Pakistan is concerned, if it is not sure that it will kill India in one wave and what benefits it will get, then the best decision is not to fight and wait for change. At the end of the day, Pakistan is too weak, the economy is too poor, it is mired in a debt crisis and high inflation, and the inflation rate in 2023 is even as high as 30%, and now is really not the time for war. India took the initiative to go to war precisely because of Pakistan's current weakness and wanted to take advantage of the danger of others to gain some benefits. Before the start of the war, India was extremely arrogant, and all kinds of crimes were frantically placed on Pakistan's head, and it was a black boss, and only four days after the start of the war, it became a dove of peace in seconds after receiving a call from the White House. India is not afraid that the United States will attack it, but that the United States will not care about it, so it can only recognize the current affairs as a good man.
Although the war lasted only four days, it caused India a big loss and its international prestige plummeted. But the biggest beneficiary is not Pakistan, but China's J-10 fighter jets. For a long time, the J-10 had no status, but after the India-Pakistan air battle, the status of the J-10 increased rapidly. The irony of this India-Pakistan conflict far outweighs its military significance, India has been reduced from the "hegemon of South Asia" to an "international material repository", and Modi's "strongman politics" has been shattered in the shortcomings of the system and the absurdity of bureaucracy. In fact, the United States does not want to mediate, and if India fights well, the United States hates to provide direct assistance. However, after seeing the war situation in India, the United States was afraid and was afraid that it would be dragged into the quagmire by India, so it could only take the initiative to mediate. However, China has always not interfered in the internal affairs of other countries, but only focused on strengthening its own national strength, so India and Pakistan quickly ceased war. But without the technological generation gap in military equipment, what else can the US influence rely on to maintain its previous rampant hegemony? This time, Pakistan agreed to the truce because of the economy, because of the lack of foreign exchange, but this is obviously not China's weakness, but its strength. China's long-standing weakness has been the technological generation gap in military equipment, and this time it is the other way around. When China does a good job in the economies of the Belt and Road countries, and then continues to develop itself for a period of time, the situation will be completely different.
TRUMP0.47%
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
0/400
No comments
Trade Crypto Anywhere Anytime
qrCode
Scan to download Gate App
Community
English
  • 简体中文
  • English
  • Tiếng Việt
  • 繁體中文
  • Español
  • Русский
  • Français (Afrique)
  • Português (Portugal)
  • Bahasa Indonesia
  • 日本語
  • بالعربية
  • Українська
  • Português (Brasil)