🌙 Tonight to tomorrow morning BTC short-term outlook: Technical signals frequently appear at the top area, and frequent fluctuations are the main theme. 1. 15-minute level: Short-term selling pressure is gradually increasing. EMA moving averages (5-13-34-55): Currently, the price has fallen below EMA5 and EMA13, stuck in the range between EMA34 and EMA55, forming a "short death cross + mid-term unbroken" structure, indicating that the short-term rise momentum has already weakened.

MACD (12,26,9): The MACD bars can clearly weaken from a high position, with DIFF and Signal tending towards a prior crossover state. If the upcoming K-line MACD turns green or confirms a death cross, it will form an elastic signal, releasing short-term pullback pressure.
RSI and KDJ: The 15-minute RSI has just dropped below the 50 midline to around 45, indicating a neutral to weak bias; the KDJ is in the overbought zone, turning at a high level, showing warning signals—especially after K exceeds 90 and J value retracts, suggesting a possible pullback after the end of the high-level fluctuations.
TD Sequential: High frequency triggers the Sell Setup phase, close to the top signal "TD9". Once formed, the short-term top probability increases.
Conclusion: The 15-minute chart has shown a short-term top lurking structure. If it falls below around 106,600 in this period, it will further decline to the 105,800 or even 105,000 zone.
2. 4-hour and daily structure: The main trend has not yet reversed, and the daily line remains in a bullish arrangement. The 20/50/100 moving averages are steadily bullish, and the oscillation and pullback of the Bollinger Bands opening do not affect the trend direction.
The 4-hour chart shows that although the MACD histogram can decline, it is still above the zero axis. The RSI is neutral to strong, and the price is operating above the 20EMA (around 104,300). The overall structure indicates that a short-term pullback may occur, but the main trend is solid, representing a healthy adjustment.
3. Macroeconomic Variables and Derivatives Structure: Enhanced Expectations of Volatility in Macroeconomic Policy: Nasdaq hits new highs due to AI, while defensive assets such as Bitcoin and gold show weak performance, indicating a short-term market style leaning towards "risk assets," but the Federal Reserve's concerns over inflation persist.
Middle East Geopolitics: Although a ceasefire is temporarily established, tensions remain, and risk-averse funds may flow into BTC or gold at any time in the short term.
US-China trade negotiations: If positive signals emerge, improved risk appetite will help BTC pump; otherwise, the market may return to range-bound fluctuations.
Options Expiry and Gamma Wall: $11 billion in options will expire soon, with Gamma pain points roughly distributed around the 105K and 107K areas, making BTC's price movement expected to be locked within this range from tonight until tomorrow morning.
4. Comprehensive Judgment and Strategy Suggestions: The technical bias is bearish, and the momentum is clearly declining, with a short-term tendency for fluctuations and pullbacks. If the 15-minute MACD death cross is confirmed and drops below 106,600, it will further open the opportunity to test the support levels of 105,800-105,000.
If the price recovers the 106,800-107,000 area and the MACD continues to reverse, the bulls still have room for a counterattack, but it is necessary to pay attention to the lack of volume confirmation, which may also just be a rebound.
Operation suggestion: Focus on short-term oscillation trading, and set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit levels. Key points of attention are the support at 106,600 and 105,800, as well as the resistance zone at 107,000-107,200.
5. Conclusion Tonight until tomorrow morning, BTC is likely to fluctuate back and forth within the "Wagner Combat Zone" (between 105K and 107K). The short-term cycle has issued a top signal, but the main trend remains stable. It is recommended that traders adopt a primary strategy of "buying on pullbacks + shorting on rebounds" and dynamically adjust their positions in real-time according to MACD and EMA death crosses/golden crosses.
This article is only a short-term strategy sharing and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, so please be sure to manage risks and trade rationally.