🌕 #美联储降息预期升温# #Gate广场创作点亮中秋# 🌕

Brothers, the moment that the market has been waiting for so long is finally here! The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is undoubtedly the absolute focus of the global financial market this week, and for us in the crypto space, it could be an important turning point in the market. I would also like to share my thoughts on this:

1️⃣ My view on the recent interest rate cut: 25 basis points is the "bottom line", while 50 basis points is a "pleasant surprise".

The market is now pricing in almost 100% for a 25 basis point rate cut, which can be seen as the "standard operation" of the Federal Reserve. However, I believe that the possibility of a 50 basis point cut cannot be completely ruled out. Recent economic data (such as the moderate slowdown in employment and inflation) has given the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver. If it is indeed a 50 basis point cut, it would be a "strong shot in the arm" for the market, undoubtedly triggering a massive buying spree in risk assets. However, from a rational perspective, Powell may lean more towards a cautious 25 basis point cut, paving the way for future rate cuts, as attitude is more important than magnitude.

2️⃣ Prediction of the short-term impact of interest rate cuts on BTC, ETH, and altcoins

· Bitcoin (BTC): As digital gold and the leader of the market, BTC will be most sensitive to interest rate cuts. A rate cut directly implies an improvement in expectations for dollar liquidity, and the risk appetite of institutions and large funds will quickly rebound. In the short term, BTC is likely to break through the recent range of fluctuations first, testing upward and even challenging previous highs. It is the bellwether of the entire market.
· Ethereum (ETH): ETH will closely follow BTC, but its momentum also comes from the development of its ecosystem. The benefits brought by interest rate cuts will directly reduce the capital costs of on-chain activities such as DeFi, which is a double benefit for ETH. In the short term, the ETH/BTC exchange rate may remain stable or slightly strengthen.
· Altcoins: Once BTC and ETH open up the upward space and market sentiment completely shifts to FOMO, the altcoin season is likely to begin. Liquidity will flood out of mainstream coins and pour into those mid to small-cap tokens that have narratives and potential. Volatility will be dramatically amplified, with many opportunities but also significant risks.

3️⃣ Combining History: Will this be the starting gun for the next bull market?

Looking back at 2019, the Federal Reserve similarly transitioned from a rate hike cycle to a rate cut cycle, which directly initiated a strong rebound of BTC from over $3000 to $14000. History does not simply repeat itself, but it rhymes. This rate cut is significant as it marks the official shift of global macro monetary policy towards easing.

I believe that this interest rate cut is likely to become one of the key catalysts for the next round of major market movements. It is not just about lowering the cost of capital; more importantly, it has changed the market's "psychological expectations" from the previous fear of tightening to optimism about easing. This shift in expectations is crucial for the cryptocurrency market, which relies on confidence and liquidity.

To summarize: Whether it's 25 basis points or 50 basis points, the direction of the interest rate cut has already been determined. For us, the key is to layout in advance, hold core positions (BTC/ETH), and keep some funds to wait for the explosion of altcoins. Pay close attention to whether Powell's speech at the press conference is "dovish" or "hawkish and cautious," as this will determine the height and sustainability of this market trend.