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Don't remind me again today

The market has recently experienced a significant decline, but the core framework is actually clear and discernible.



Important things must be emphasized three times—do not rush to buy the dip, do not rush to buy the dip, do not rush to buy the dip!

Yesterday, I explained that this round of decline is essentially affected by the sentiment of the US stock market, compounded by three key factors that added fuel to the fire, directly doubling the impact.

Firstly, the liquidity crisis remains unresolved. Although the U.S. government has resumed operations, the previously tight funding situation is unlikely to recover immediately. The key point is that the Federal Reserve will not officially end its balance sheet reduction until early December—if market liquidity is still lacking by then, there will be little choice but to restart easing and release liquidity.

Second, the "hawkish rhetoric bombardment" from the Federal Reserve. Several officials have consecutively released hawkish signals, combined with economic data that fluctuates between good and bad, completely disrupting market expectations. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to around 50%, with both bulls and bears in a wait-and-see mode, leading to a stalemate in the market.

Thirdly, the controversy over the AI bubble is intensifying. Recently, skepticism towards the AI sector has been growing, and pessimism is spreading from tech stocks to the entire market, with various risk assets facing downward pressure.

The current market issues have been brought to light, and the only core action to take moving forward is to "patiently wait for a clear reversal signal." Once the signal appears, it will be the right time to enter and position.
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