#美国终止政府关闭 What is going on with this round of Bitcoin big dump? Many people see $BTC breaking 100,000 and shout that the Bear Market has arrived, but a calm look at the data reveals that this looks more like a technical pullback in a bull run.

Let me start with an unconventional fact: the market did not rebound after the U.S. government resumed operations, which is not bearish news; rather, it indicates that good news has already been digested in advance. What truly affects market trends is never the political dramas in the White House, but the Federal Reserve's faucet switch. Now that interest rates have already been cut twice and the signals of pausing quantitative tightening are becoming clearer, some institutions are even beginning to discuss the possibility of restarting QE. Once liquidity returns, the imagination space for cryptocurrencies is still very large.

This pullback does look scary, and the year-end low of 93,714 has been tested again. But if you look closely at the on-chain data, you'll find the issue: long-term holding addresses haven't moved at all, and panic selling is almost nonexistent. The main factor is that short-term high leverage has been liquidated, plus there are huge whales taking profits at the psychological barrier of one hundred thousand dollars, compounded by the cooling off of the AI sector and a collective adjustment in tech stocks. These multiple factors resonated to amplify the volatility. In short, this is the market cooling down the overheated sentiment.

On Wall Street, Tom Lee has stated that it will take 6 to 8 weeks to digest, but the medium to long-term trend has not changed. He is now increasing his positions in AI concepts and mainstream coins, believing that this is a window for positioning rather than a time to flee. Even Eric from the Trump family has publicly expressed that Bitcoin is becoming the hardest asset globally, and the energy advantage in the U.S. is lowering mining costs, while institutions and family offices continue to accumulate coins.

In summary, there are three time dimensions: in the short term, there will definitely be continued fluctuations, with the one hundred thousand dollar position experiencing repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears; in the medium term, the certainty of liquidity easing is strengthening, and pullbacks are actually opportunities; in the long term, M2 growth, interest rate cuts, and the potential restart of QE — these macro conditions are still supporting the bull run logic.

There is a lot of market noise, but the real signals are actually very clear: monetary policy is turning towards easing, and the Bitcoin bullish cycle is far from over. What needs to be done now is not to panic, but to discern which are the real trend changes and which are just the noise of short-term fluctuations.