#数字货币市场调整 market enters a critical three-week window period

Last night, Bitcoin reached 93,000 USD, while Ethereum fell back to the 3,000 USD mark, with multiple technical indicators breaking down simultaneously. The underlying logic of this round of adjustment may lie in the macro data that will be released intensively over the next three weeks.

The U.S. government shutdown has temporarily come to an end, and the backlog of economic data is about to be released. These figures will directly impact the policy direction of the Federal Reserve's December meeting, while the cryptocurrency market is currently in a state of extreme sensitivity in terms of both technical patterns and sentiment indicators.

**Data Release Node Sorting**

The U.S. Department of Commerce has released the schedule for key data:
- November 20: September Non-Farm Payroll Report
- November 21: Actual salary data for September
- November 26: Q3 GDP revision + October PCE inflation data
- December 4: October Trade Balance
- December 19: Q3 GDP final value

Based on this timeline, before the FOMC meeting on December 9-10, the Federal Reserve decision-makers will have a complete view of the employment, inflation, retail, and third-quarter growth data for September.

**The Game Space of Policy Expectations**

Currently, the market prices the probability of a rate cut in December at just around 40%. However, there is a detail worth noting: the hawkish officials who have been frequently speaking recently are mostly not on this year's FOMC voting committee list. Their statements seem more like part of the policy debate rather than final decision signals.

If last night's price break was a false breakout, then a reasonable script should be: after the data is released this week, dovish officials with voting rights will gradually release signals of a more accommodative policy to pave the way for expectations for the December monetary policy meeting.

**Two Observation Points**

On the day when the missing unemployment rate data and PCE inflation data are released during the standstill period, market volatility may be severe. These data not only complete the Federal Reserve's decision-making puzzle but also clarify the current ambiguous policy expectations.

In three weeks, several key data points may redefine the market landscape before the end of the year. The trend of $BTC may perhaps find its answer in these numbers.