#鲍威尔讲话 BTC four-hour level: key moment of Bull vs Bear Battle

Currently, BTC trading is around $91,325, right at the historically validated support zone of $90,000-$91,000. This range has blocked declines before, indicating that there is indeed capital defending it, but the issue lies in the short-term resistance posed by the 7-day moving average overhead, making the bearish pattern still quite evident. At this position, it feels more like a brief respite during a decline.

From a technical perspective, both MACD lines are below the zero axis, which is a typical weak signal. Although the narrowing green bars indicate that selling pressure is weakening, it does not represent a trend reversal; it can only be said that both bulls and bears are observing in the short term. The RSI reading hovers in the 30-40 range, indicating that the market is in a clear oversold state. However, it is important to remind that oversold can become more oversold, and the risk of blindly bottom-fishing in such an environment is extremely high.

Today, BTC's performance is weak, struggling at a key support level. The wisest course of action at this stage is to wait and see. Two critical price levels must be closely monitored: on the support side, $90,000-$91,000 is the lifeline; if effectively broken, the next buying area may need to see $85,000-$88,000, which would lead to another wave of deep correction; on the resistance side, $93,000-$93,500 is the short-term ceiling. If the price cannot stabilize in this area, all rebounds are merely rebounds, suitable for reducing positions rather than chasing prices.

In terms of trading strategy, holding onto your coins and observing the market is currently the optimal solution. You can either wait for the price to break above $93,500 to confirm a short-term opportunity, or wait for a drop below $90,000 to confirm the continuation of a downward trend. Until the direction is clear, being in cash is the best position. If you really want to trade, you can only experiment with small positions at extreme levels: if it approaches $90,000 without breaking, you can go long with a small position, setting a stop loss at $89,800; if it rebounds and faces resistance around $93,000, you can try going short, but strict stop losses must be adhered to. Such risky trading is only suitable for experienced traders.

At critical turning points, patience is more valuable than technique.