The frying pan is on fire! US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) exploded at 119,000, is the crypto world going to be a bloodbath tonight?

Brothers, the past hour has seen the entire financial market go completely crazy! The US Department of Labor just released the September US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which has left everyone stunned—an increase of 119,000 jobs! What does this mean? The market expected only 52,000, and the previous value was just 22,000. This data has simply rubbed expectations into the ground and even stomped on them a couple of times!
The market app on my phone instantly exploded, the US dollar index soared straight up, US stock futures plunged directly, and the crypto world was filled with wails. It is not an exaggeration to say that tonight is destined to go down in history, while most people may not yet realize that a storm of blood and gore has just begun.
How terrifying is this data?
We need to clarify what the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) of 119,000 means first. Brothers, this is not just a simple "data better than expected"; this is a strong assist to the Fed's hawkish stance!
Just think, just a month ago, the market was still immersed in the panic of "the US economy is going to recession", and the previous value of 22,000 made everyone feel like "it's over, it's over, the soft landing is about to become a hard landing". What happened? In just a month, the data directly increased by more than 5 times! What does this indicate? It indicates that the US economy is incredibly resilient, and the labor market is heating up.
For the Federal Reserve, this is the best "rate hike permit". Uncle Powell can now confidently say: "See? The economy is doing so well, we have no need to rush into cutting rates!" As a result, market expectations turned around 180 degrees in an instant—the probability of a rate cut in November dropped from 70% yesterday to below 30%, and even more aggressive analysts have begun to say, "Don't expect any rate cuts before 2026!"
Key point: This is not an ordinary positive signal, but a fatal blow to the expectations of interest rate cuts. The slogan "Higher for Longer" will completely become the main theme of the market from today.
Three major shockwaves are on the way, are you ready?
The impact of this wave of US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data will come crashing in three layers like a tsunami, each layer capable of ruining you.
The First Wave: The Dollar King Returns, the Doomsday of Non-USD Assets
As soon as the data came out, the US dollar index DXY soared from 106 to 108, which is a nuclear-level increase in the foreign exchange market. Brothers, what does a strong dollar mean? It means that all risk assets priced in dollars will have to die!
The crypto world is the first to bear the brunt: Bitcoin and Ethereum, these digital assets, are essentially the fighter jets among risk assets. When the US dollar strengthens, funds will flow crazily back to the US, buying risk-free assets like US Treasury bonds and dollar deposits. Who would still want to hold highly volatile cryptocurrencies? Therefore, the selling pressure will come in waves and simply can't be stopped.
Emerging markets are bleeding: just look at today's Turkish lira and Argentine peso, they've dropped to levels unrecognizable. Capital is fleeing from all corners of the globe to the United States; this is the harsh reality of dollar hegemony.
Second wave: Liquidity dreams shattered, high interest rates become the new normal.
Previously, the market was still fantasizing that the Federal Reserve would quickly cut interest rates and provide liquidity to the market. Now? The dream is over! With such strong US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), the Federal Reserve has enough confidence to maintain high interest rates and may even raise rates again.
What does it mean for the crypto world? It means there is no cheap capital anymore! How did the bull market of 2021 come about? Central banks injected liquidity! How did the rebound in 2023 happen? Expectations of interest rate cuts! Now both of these are gone, and the source of market funds has been cut off. What will support the high valuations?
What's worse is that high interest rates will continue to suppress risk appetite. Just think about it, the one-year risk-free rate in the US is nearly 5.5% now; who would want to take the risk of liquidation to trade contracts? Funds will continuously flow from risk assets to fixed income products. Once this trend is established, it can't be reversed in a day or two.
The third wave: the end of leverage, a liquidation-style drop is on the way.
This is the most dangerous wave. Brothers, go take a look at the contract data; the total Bitcoin contract positions across the entire network are over 20 billion USD, with long positions accounting for more than 60%. Among these long positions, how many are at 10x, 20x, or even 50x leverage?
$85,000 is the critical threshold, it's a matter of life and death! Once it falls below, it will trigger a series of liquidations:
• 85,000 broke → 10x leverage long positions start to liquidate → Price drops to 84,000
• 84,000 hit → 20x leverage long explosion → Price crashed to 82,000
• 82,000 breaks again → 50x maximum leverage evaporates → price heads straight below 80,000
This is a typical "death spiral" and a panic liquidation. What's even scarier is that many institutions have set up programmed stop losses, which will automatically sell once the price reaches a certain point. So when it drops, it often happens particularly fast, and you can't react in time.
Data shows that after the last 6 US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) exceeded expectations, the average drop in Bitcoin within 24 hours was 7.2%. However, this time the data exceeded expectations by so much that the decline could be deeper!
The crypto world faces a life-and-death situation tonight: every coin is undergoing a tribulation.
Bitcoin: The 85,000 defense line is the Maginot Line.
BTC is now the focus of the entire market. The $85,000 level has significant technical meaning:
• It is the low point of September
• It is the position of the 200-day moving average.
• It is a densely traded area in the early stage.
It can be said that 85,000 is supported by technology, psychology, and capital. But can this position hold? I am very pessimistic.
Why? Because the selling pressure is too heavy! It's not just the liquidation of contracts, but also the panic selling on the spot market. Think about it, those early investors who bought in at 60,000, 70,000, seeing such poor data, wouldn't they want to "take profits and exit"? Those institutions and miners, facing expectations of tightening liquidity, wouldn't they sell off their reserves in advance?
Once 85,000 is broken, what to look at below?
• First target: 82,000 (previous low)
• Second target: 80,000 (round number)
• Ultimate defense line: 78,000 (annual line position)
But I think that if 85,000 cannot be held, even 80,000 might not be maintained. Because panic sentiment will spread, and the market needs to find a "despair bottom" to rebuild energy.
Ethereum: More Dangerous than Bitcoin
ETH's situation is worse than BTC's right now. Why?
First, the narrative of Ethereum has been weakened. In a high interest rate environment, the yields from DeFi have become unattractive. Previously, you would say "staking ETH could yield 5%", but now U.S. bonds are offering 5.5%. Who still participates in DeFi?
Second, gas fees remain sluggish. With low on-chain activity, the ETH burning mechanism does not take effect, affecting the entire economic model.
Thirdly, institutional holdings are more concentrated. The top 1000 addresses holding Ethereum have a higher coin holding ratio than Bitcoin, and once these large holders start to sell, the dumping pressure will be stronger.
From a technical perspective, the key support for ETH is at $2500. If it breaks below that, it may head straight to $2300. The resistance level above is at $2750. Want to break through? It's going to be very difficult.
SOL, DOGE, MEME coin: liquidity crisis imminent
These small coins may suffer even more tonight. Why? Because of liquidity! With such poor US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data, the market's risk aversion is rising, and funds will prioritize withdrawing from the highest-risk assets.
The key support for SOL is at $150, and if it breaks, it will look at $130.
DOGE, a coin driven purely by emotions, may drop back to 0.15 or even 0.12.
Various MEME coins might see a bloodbath tonight, with drops of 30% to 50% being quite common.
Brothers, remember this: in a bear market, all altcoins are the β of Bitcoin; when Bitcoin drops by 10%, they start dropping by 20%.
The panic index has skyrocketed, and market sentiment has dropped to freezing point.
The panic in the market can no longer be described as "worry"; it is simply "the apocalypse has arrived."
The VIX fear index has skyrocketed from 20 to 28, and this is before the U.S. stock market has even opened. Once the U.S. stock market opens tonight, it is estimated to surge above 30. What does 30 mean? During the pandemic crash in March 2020, the VIX was over 80, but typically, exceeding 30 is already considered extreme fear.
The panic index in the crypto world is even more exaggerated, dropping directly from 60 yesterday to 35 (the lower the value, the more panic). What does this indicate? It indicates that the market has瞬间转为"恐慌" and is deepening.
The capital flow data is even more alarming: in the past 4 hours, the minting volume of stablecoins USDT and USDC has surged, indicating that everyone is exchanging coins for US dollars. Meanwhile, the amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum flowing out of exchanges is also increasing, suggesting that people are withdrawing coins to wallets, preparing to "lie flat" for the long term or to hedge against risks.
This shift in sentiment often indicates that the short-term bottom has not yet arrived. Because panic sentiment goes through a fermentation process, from "worry" to "fear" to "despair"; we may just have reached the "fear" stage now, and by tomorrow morning, it might be the true "despair" moment.
Survival Guide for Bros: Do it this way tonight to survive.
After all this bad news, let's get to the point. In this market situation, how can we operate to survive until tonight?
First Iron Rule: Refuse to catch flying knives with bare hands
Many old friends see the drop and want to bottom fish, thinking "It has fallen so much, it should rebound now." Brother, this kind of thinking is particularly dangerous tonight!
Remember: in the face of trends, any bottom-fishing behavior is like an ant trying to stop a car. With such strong US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP), the trend has completely turned bearish. At this time, trying to bottom-fish is not investing, it's gambling.
Correct approach: wait for a rebound and then reduce your position! For example, if Bitcoin drops to 85,000 and rebounds to 86,000 or 87,000, that’s your opportunity to reduce your position. Don’t think "I'll wait a bit longer after the rebound, it might go back to 90,000"; the market won’t give you that opportunity.
Second Iron Law: Cash is King, Retain Strength
The most important thing now is not how much you earn, but how to survive. How to survive? Having cash on hand!
Operational recommendations:
• If there are still full positions, the rebound tonight must be reduced to below 50%.
• If it is already below 50%, you can consider reducing it to 30%.
• Keep 70% cash to wait for the real golden pit.
When will this golden pit appear? It could be tomorrow, next week, or maybe a month later. But as long as you have cash in hand, there is an opportunity. Those who are reluctant to sell now will only regret not cutting losses earlier when it drops to 70,000.
The third iron law: 85,000 is the lifeline; if it breaks, defensive mode is activated.
The core of all operations tonight is to keep an eye on the 85,000 point.
If 85,000 holds:
• You can take a small position (10%-20%) to speculate on a rebound in the range of 85,000 to 86,000.
• But the stop loss must be set at 84,800, and must run if it falls below.
• Don't set the rebound target too high, consider taking profits at 88,000.
If 85,000 breaks:
• Don't hesitate, reduce your position by another 30% immediately.
• Don't have any illusions about "selling after a rebound."
• Consider buying back at 80,000 or even 78,000.
The ultimate essence of the defense mode: it's better to miss the rebound later than to get stuck halfway up the mountain. Selling now, the maximum loss is 20%; but if you don't sell, a drop of 50% or even more is not impossible.
The fourth iron rule: Stay away from high leverage, because being alive means having output.
If you dare to trade contracts tonight, I respect you as a man, but your wallet may not be safe.
Specific recommendations:
• All leverage above 10 times, now immediately close positions.
• For 5x leverage, set a stop loss, and if the margin rate is below 200%, top up the margin.
• Spot traders should avoid contracts, especially short positions, as the volatility is too high and a spike can liquidate you.
Remember, in this market condition, the "spike" phenomenon on exchanges will be particularly frequent. You see the price drop to 85,000, and the next second it might spike to 83,000 to liquidate long positions, and then immediately rebound to 86,000. You won't even have time to react, and your position will be gone.
History is always remarkably similar: looking back at the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) of 2018.
Some may ask: "Does data really have such a big impact?" Let's take a look at history.
On October 5, 2018, the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data was also significantly better than expected (250,000 vs the expected 180,000), and the Federal Reserve was in a rate hike cycle. What was Bitcoin's performance after the data was released?
• On the same day: dropped from $6600 to $6400, a decline of 3%
• 3 days later: drop to 6200
• One week later: below 6000
• One month later: drop to 4500
The entire process dropped more than 30%, and it was completed within a month. How many people bought the dip halfway up? How many people were liquidated because they "thought it had dropped enough"?
How similar is the current situation to that of 2018? It is the same Federal Reserve interest rate hike cycle, the same data exceeding expectations, and the same tightening of market liquidity. History does not simply repeat itself, but it always echoes with the same rhyme.
Practical advice for different investors
If you are a short-term trader:
Don't sleep tonight, keep an eye on the market. If 85,000 breaks, short it with a target of 82,000 and 80,000; if 85,000 holds, wait for a rebound to 87,000 to short, with a stop loss at 87,500. Remember, short-term trading is all about following the trend; right now, there is a bearish trend, so don't go long.
If you are a medium-term investor:
Tomorrow morning, after waking up, if the price is above 85,000, reduce the position to below 30%; if it falls below 85,000, drop it directly to 10%. Then go to work, go about your life, and don't look at it. Wait for the fear index to return to below 20, and then consider gradually buying back in.
If you are a long-term holder:
Turn off the computer and go to sleep. 70,000 and 80,000 make no difference to you because you believe Bitcoin can reach 200,000 and 300,000. But remember, when you do dollar-cost averaging in the future, transfer it to your wallet, don't leave it on the exchange.
If you are a newcomer just entering the field:
Congratulations, the first lesson has arrived! Don't trade tonight, focus on learning first. Observe how the market fluctuates, see how panic spreads, and watch how the seasoned players respond. Consider this money as tuition, but don't pay too much.
Only real hunters will strike after the storm.
After all that has been said, let me leave you with one last piece of advice: In the financial market, staying alive is the biggest victory.
Tonight's storm is a nightmare for many, but for a few, it is an opportunity. Those hunters who bought in at 85,000, 80,000, or even 75,000 will look back a year from now and be grateful for today's plunge.
But what is the premise? It's that you have to survive until then. So tonight, take care of your hands, watch your positions, don't gamble, don't be greedy, don't be impulsive.
Finally, once again, let me emphasize:
• Cash is king, keep 70% of the bullets.
• 85,000 is a lifeline; if it breaks, then defense is compromised.
• Refuse to bottom fish, reduce positions on rebounds
• Stay away from leverage, don't play with contracts
After the storm, the market will reward those calm, rational, and disciplined investors. And tonight is the touchstone to test whether you can become a "survivor."
Brothers, hold on! Tomorrow the sun will rise as usual, but whether your account can recover depends on how you operate tonight. Remember the advice of the old investors: don't go against the Federal Reserve, don't go against the trend, and don't go against your own wallet.
Good luck to everyone, see you tomorrow! #逆势上涨币种推荐 #美联储会议纪要将公布 #比特币行情观察 Bitcoin market observation #