#加密生态动态追踪 Right now, honestly, it's really hard to judge—whether we're at the start of a complete bear market or experiencing a deep correction during a bull run. The lines at $BTC around 80,000 and $ETH around 2,500 are whether they represent the bottom or just a transit point, shrouded in fog. From the historical high points, the decline is less than 50%, which is a key signal: if a bear market erupts, the subsequent drop could be significant; but if it's just the pain of a bull market, a rebound or even new highs in the next 3 to 5 months are possible. The problem is, no one can see through it now, and we happen to be trapped in this uncertainty.

How to survive and do better? Perhaps these 3 things are the most practical:

**Maintain profitable positions** Keep 20-30% of your holdings in Bitcoin and Ethereum, neither fully betting on nor completely dismissing them, allowing for both offensive and defensive moves.

**Accumulate ammunition** True opportunities come when the market is well-stocked. When the market continues to worsen and panic sets in, those who have prepared funds in advance can buy in at ideal prices. In extreme moments like "blood flowing in rivers," it's often the biggest wealth transfer period.

**Cautiously participate in new opportunities** Low-cost new listings and airdrops are indeed attractive, but this waters are very deep. Predicting the market or grabbing airdrops may seem free, but in reality, they require a complete strategy and risk awareness. Casual participation will likely lead to losses.

Ultimately, I think the first two are the most reliable: preserve some chips, continuously accumulate capital, and wait for real bottom signals. Simple and straightforward, but this is how you survive in times of uncertainty.