#美联储回购协议计划 The economic data is impressive (GDP 4.2% exceeds expectations), but the market reaction is quite subdued, even somewhat timid. Why? Because the first reaction of investors is not 'the economy is great', but 'will this force the Fed to raise interest rates?'. Good news has ironically turned into a powder keg of bad emotions.

This is the contradiction of traditional finance – logically, economic growth should drive up asset prices, but in reality, it often works in the opposite direction.

The truth about the policy front is actually not that complicated. On one hand, the current Fed management is still in place, and the policy framework is relatively stable in the short term; on the other hand, once personnel changes occur, the pace of interest rate cuts is almost a foregone conclusion. The entire market is actually waiting for this turning point.

What really drives capital is not sweet talk, but real liquidity.

From this perspective, the more traditional finance is unable to function, the more capital needs to find an outlet. The crypto market operates 24/7, has no trading restrictions, and moves at a faster pace, making it the best container for absorbing excess liquidity. Institutions have long been keeping an eye on this side, but they are just waiting for a sufficiently certain signal. Once the Fed really loosens up, the new liquidity spillover will inevitably benefit high market cap assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum first.

For individual traders, the core message is simple: don't let the news be your compass; instead, focus on market rhythms—weekend liquidity characteristics, time windows, market structure—these details often have a greater influence on short-term trends than the big logic.

In simple terms: the more complicated U.S. policies are, the stronger the dependency of funds on the crypto market. Panic selling is not always dangerous; sometimes it is just an opportunity to build positions at low levels.

The final words are particularly realistic: if you can't psychologically handle large fluctuations and don't have a capital management framework, don't stubbornly hold on. The changes are too fast right now, and different position configurations require completely different strategies. Before entering the market, understand your risk tolerance and time cost; preserving your principal is always the first lesson.

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