2025-12-24 08:27:27

Japanese long-term government bonds are struggling this week. The 30-year bond yield surged to 3.45%, hitting a new all-time high, while the 40-year also held strong, rising to 3.715%. This upward trend started in early November and has been climbing steadily.

The story behind this is quite clear—the market is betting on how large Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's debt-stimulus plan will be. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has started hinting at continued rate hikes, causing short-term bond yields to jump as well. With both sides pushing, long-term bonds are being driven higher.

According to reports, Japan is considering issuing approximately 29.6 trillion yen in new government bonds for the 2026 fiscal year (about $18.955 billion). How this money will be spent and whether there will be restraint remains unclear to the market. Kishida has stated in interviews that his "proactive" fiscal plan will not include irresponsible bond issuance or tax cuts.

However, these comments have not fully alleviated investors' concerns. Since long-term government bond yields have reached historic highs, it indicates that the market remains somewhat uneasy about Japan's debt financing outlook. In this situation, no one can predict what will happen next.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

12 Likes

Reward
12
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

TokenStorm

· 6h ago

Breaking the 3.45 level for 30 years, the technical aspect has completely failed. From the trend retracement since early November, this accelerated upward curve has an extremely high risk factor, but the real question is whether you dare to go all-in or not [dog head].

View OriginalReply0

MoneyBurnerSociety

· 7h ago

I'm familiar with this tactic in Japan. If there's no accountability, the market will bet in the opposite direction. Our alpha king is about to review the failed arbitrage again.

View OriginalReply0

P2ENotWorking

· 7h ago

The Japanese bond market is playing with fire again, with 29.6 trillion yen being spent at will—who would believe that?

View OriginalReply0

TaxEvader

· 7h ago

The figure of 29.6 trillion yen has caused investors to start questioning life, haha. --- The Japanese bond market really can't hold up anymore; new all-time highs have been reached. What other tricks are left? --- They said they wouldn't spend recklessly, but the yields hit new highs. The market just doesn't believe it. --- With the central bank raising interest rates and issuing new bonds, long-term bonds are doomed. This pace seems a bit frantic to me. --- The 29.6 trillion yen being released just like that—how is this calculation made? The market clearly can't see through it, and neither can I. --- Sanae Takaichi's word "responsibility"—not a single investor believed it, it's hilarious.

View OriginalReply0

OfflineValidator

· 7h ago

Japanese bonds are just putting on a show of "I say I won't spend recklessly" and then the market directly turns its face away, haha

View OriginalReply0

FlashLoanLarry

· 7h ago

lol the basis points explosion is *chef's kiss* — market's literally pricing in the uncertainty of whether they actually mean "fiscal discipline" or it's just lipstick on a debt pig. 3.45% on 30y? that's not a yield move, that's a capital utilization repricing happening in real time. told you so vibes fr fr.

Reply0

RegenRestorer

· 7h ago

Japanese bonds are such a mess, it feels like they're setting an example for global central banks... 29.6 trillion yen, saying they won't spend it if they don't want to, probably just bluffing.

View OriginalReply0

SybilSlayer

· 7h ago

Japan is once again playing the debt game, and the record-high yields are really not a good sign.

View OriginalReply0