#通胀与经济增长 After watching Powell's latest speech, I have to say that this rate cut decision is quite interesting— the 9:3 vote itself speaks volumes. With such significant uncertainty about policy direction in the second half of next year, the trading logic must be adjusted accordingly.

The core issues boil down to three paths: inflation downtrend, deterioration of the labor market, or a change in the Federal Reserve leadership. The first two point to a re-pricing of economic expectations, which impacts traders of different styles very differently. Among the top traders I’ve been observing recently, some have already adjusted their position structures—reducing bets on continuous rate cuts and instead increasing their chips on inflation stickiness.

This is the thinking of a professional trader: it’s not about guessing whether the Fed will cut rates, but understanding how the risk asset pricing logic is reconstructed after the policy framework changes. Leadership changes are particularly tricky variables; they break market expectations of policy continuity—such uncertainty often becomes the breeding ground for big waves.

My current follow strategy leans towards traders who have hedging awareness and are good at risk control. During such policy gaps, those who can survive until certainty returns are the real winners. Short-term gains are tempting, but stop-loss levels must be maintained.