Based on past K-line data, the cryptocurrency market in 2026 seems unlikely to escape a deep bear market. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, there were significant corrections. According to this model, Bitcoin in 2026 may fall back to $40,000–$50,000, and altcoins could face a wave of zeroing out.

Additionally, by 2026, crypto applications are no longer what they used to be. Pumpfun, Hypeliquid, and other emerging platforms have risen, stablecoins are integrated with PayPal, and potentially killer apps could bring in massive user funds.
From a probability perspective, there is a 50% chance of a soft landing with a slow bull market, where holding core tokens requires no stop-loss; a 20% chance of breaking the four-year cycle into a super bull; and a 30% chance of a complete crash. For institutions, 2026 is a perfect period for allocation, while retail investors can adopt bear market strategies.
The ocean is reshaping—are you surfing or just watching the waves? Like and share, and let’s discuss together!