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Sit tight and hold steady, get ready for the New Year market!
The market has been silent for two months, finally there is hope for a comeback.
Looking at most Wall Street institutions' forecasts, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in January, and will probably maintain the current stance. The February meeting is a blank period, and the probability of a rate cut in March is higher.
Overall, the positive macro expectations outweigh the negatives. According to past bullish logic, market volatility will occur before the positive news is realized, starting around March when the rate cut happens.
I’ve prepared a large-scale K-line analysis chart for reference.
Since the last bull-bear cycle, the black line in the chart has always served as a support line for the bull and bear markets. I call it the "Life Line." The only time it was broken in these five years was during the major bear market in 2022.
From the October correction to now, the market has stabilized around this line.
My conclusion remains unchanged: in the short term, Q1 of next year is still worth looking forward to, especially during the New Year period.
These past two months, we've endured many voices from the market. Staying committed has been truly difficult. Friends who have stuck with it, give a thumbs up!