#比特币价格分析 Half-Mu Xia's judgment is worth paying attention to—currently, it’s indeed no longer appropriate to be firmly bullish, but over-pessimism can also lead to being proven wrong. Recently, I’ve been reviewing the decision logic of several copy-trading accounts and found that the most vulnerable to losses are during these "extreme expectation" periods.

Key information to highlight: Bitcoin’s volatility has been squeezed to the extreme, and the direction is about to become clear. What does this mean? In the short term, it’s likely to be a repeated washout, so there’s no need to frequently switch copy-trading directions. I tend to adopt a split-position strategy—maintain 50% in observation, 30% following expert traders who are bullish, and the remaining 20% reserved for black swan events like a large ETF outflow (although they say this is low probability, risk management can never be overlooked).

The levels of 81,000 and 71,000 are indeed important. But rather than guessing extreme market conditions, it’s better to observe how experienced traders who repeatedly operate within the bottom range are doing—they usually have a keener sense of trend reversals than analysts. There might be adjustments around March or April next year, but anxiety now is pointless; setting the right rhythm is much more reliable than betting on a direction.