In 2026, as Bitcoin 'gently' stabilizes, the reason gold surges—XBTO CEO discusses the institutional investor era

When the new trading session begins in Hong Kong, Bitcoin hovers around $86,620, recording a 2.93% decline over 24 hours. Meanwhile, gold surges past the $5,500 level, and silver continues to hit record highs. What is behind this obvious gap? Listening to the perspective of XBTO CEO Philippe Bekhazi, the ‘calm’ movement of Bitcoin is not a sign of weakness but rather a sign of market maturity.

As geopolitical risks and selling pressure in the bond market shake the entire market, Bitcoin has remained largely flat for nearly six months. At the same time, institutional holdings are steadily increasing, and this contradictory phenomenon symbolizes a structural change in the cryptocurrency market.

The ‘Silence’ of Bitcoin in the Institutional Investment Era

Bitcoin is no longer traded as a frontier asset. In an interview with CoinDesk, Bekhazi stated, “There is a fundamental difference between Bitcoin and what we call cryptocurrencies,” positioning BTC as an asset whose investment thesis is ‘crystallizing’ as it matures.

This change is dramatic. The era characterized by explosive rallies and reflexive price swings is almost over, and Bitcoin is now transitioning into a ‘post-IPO’ market. What institutional investors seek are not high-beta returns but stability, liquidity, and risk management.

As a regulated financial product, corporate finance departments and derivatives markets have absorbed most of Bitcoin’s supply. As a result, volatility has been compressed, and short-term price movements have become more subdued. This does not mean Bitcoin has entered a bear market; rather, it indicates that the trading environment is moving toward ‘silence.’

Market Structure Changes Seen in ‘Calm’ Trading

Bekhazi emphasizes that the place where returns are generated is rapidly changing. For example, during last October’s tariff flash crash, approximately $19 billion of leveraged positions were liquidated across the entire crypto market. This is strong evidence that institutional activity is now more focused on risk management and transfer rather than pursuing clear directional bets.

“Many large investors want exposure to Bitcoin, but they also need to protect themselves from downside risks,” Bekhazi said. This demand has driven the expansion of derivatives markets and hedging strategies, making the spot trading environment more ‘calm.’

The fragmented structure of the crypto asset market is merely a ‘exchange-specific issue,’ but when price gaps occur due to liquidations, active managers can intervene as liquidity providers, creating an advantage in extracting alpha from the market’s microstructure.

The Supply-Demand Structure Supporting Long-Term Valuation of Bitcoin

The long-term investment thesis remains unchanged. Bekhazi clearly points out that the structural inflow of ETFs and institutional investors, within a fixed and predictable Bitcoin supply, is an essential source of demand. This supply-demand imbalance supports long-term valuation even if short-term price movements appear sluggish.

Ethereum trades below $2,860, down 4.48% over 24 hours. It shows significantly weaker movement compared to Bitcoin, suggesting a defensive positioning decline amid risk aversion.

Divergence Point Between Gold and Bitcoin: ‘Calm’ and ‘Surge’

The rapid rise of gold and silver fits neatly into this framework. As macroeconomic concerns intensify, capital is expected to rotate from Bitcoin to gold. According to the LBMA 2026 forecast survey, analysts expect gold prices to rise about 40% from 2025, with silver nearly doubling.

Bekhazi states that gold is “the ultimate safe haven asset when the world faces difficulties,” especially for governments and central banks that lack the ability to quickly and massively shift funds into Bitcoin. Currently, gold levels exceeding $5,500 per ounce suggest an overheated trading environment, with nominal value increasing by about $1.6 trillion in one day.

In Bekhazi’s view, this rotation phenomenon is not a fundamental change but a cyclical one. The key is not the absolute price but the relative valuation. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio becomes a more important indicator than superficial performance. Gold first absorbs urgency and scale, while Bitcoin is treated as a balance sheet asset by institutional investors, with its value proposition unfolding over a longer-term horizon.

Moments When Hypotheses Break Down

Bekhazi also clearly states the conditions under which hypotheses completely break down. If Bitcoin is traded as a high-beta tech asset during periods of inflation or crises, the ‘digital gold’ story will fail. Persistent ETF outflows during normal 20% corrections would suggest unwarranted weakness among institutional investors. Additionally, if prices rise while on-chain activity and stablecoin usage collapse, it would indicate a period driven by speculation rather than utility, marking the end of the institutional era.

Current Market Environment

Bitcoin: Amid Japanese bond sell-offs and threats of re-escalating US tariffs, risk aversion is spreading. As of January 29, 2026, it trades around $86,620, down 2.93% over 24 hours. Derivatives data shows traders are more focused on building short positions than aggressive spot selling.

Ethereum: Trading near $2,860, down 4.48% over 24 hours. It shows a notably weaker stance compared to Bitcoin, indicating a decline in defensive positioning amid risk aversion.

Gold & Silver: Gold and silver continue to hit record highs. Sentiment indicators like the JM Bullion Gold Fear & Greed Index show extreme bullishness in precious metals. Conversely, similar sentiment indicators for crypto assets remain in fear.

Nikkei 225: The Japanese Nikkei 225 fell 1.28%, and markets across Asia-Pacific also declined. The threat of tariffs related to Greenland, reinforced by President Donald Trump, caused Wall Street to record its worst trading in three months, shaking global risk sentiment.

While Bitcoin’s price movements over the past 24 hours are far from ‘calm,’ the market is still testing whether Bitcoin can maintain stability. Meanwhile, gold continues to absorb macroeconomic stress. Whether the relative underperformance signals maturity or a temporary valuation distortion will determine the next cycle.