Wait for a pump or a drop: trading scheme on BTC

BTC is currently in a key zone of uncertainty, where every move can lead either to a spectacular rally or a deep correction. The current price — $82.76K with a -5.93% drop over the past 24 hours — reflects a balance between aggressive sellers and lurking buyers. This is not a moment for hasty decisions. It’s a time for precise calibration of entries and exits, where success depends on understanding where liquidity will flow.

Analysis of the current market structure and liquidity

BTC’s price is stuck in a mid-range zone around 89.5k — a classic area of indecision where neither buyers nor sellers dominate. It looks uncomfortable, but in reality, it’s a signal.

Above the current level is a clear resistance zone at 93k–94k — a strong supply block that previously rejected the price with aggression. This level is a wall that BTC is not yet ready to break through.

Below the price is a well-defined demand zone at 87.5k–88.5k, where buyers previously entered with strength. These are not just numbers — this is territory where smart money recharges while retail traders panic. Liquidity here is sufficient for the market to utilize.

The short-term structure indicates one thing: the decline is primarily underway before a possible further pump. The market wants to punish the impatient. The current price is too high for aggressive buying but too low for confident shorting. Here, traders wait, observe, and prepare.

Two strategies: when to catch demand and when to sell the pump

Main scenario: buying on the dip

If the price drops into the 87.5k–88.5k zone, it will become an entry point for a long position. Here, the classic mechanism works: liquidity below the range will be used before any significant rise. This is not a place for retail panic — institutions are at work here.

Stop-loss is set below 86.8k — this is the level of a clean rejection from the structure.

Target levels:

• First target: 90.5k (initial recovery)
• Second target: 92.0k (approaching the resistance zone)
• Third target: 93.5k–94.0k (final supply block and possible pump)

The logic is simple: the price must digest liquidity from below before attempting to break resistance from above.

Secondary scenario: selling on the rally

If the price reaches the 93k–94k zone (the supply block), a short position can be opened. Stop-loss is set at 94.6k, above the maximum resistance level.

Target levels:

• 91k (first pullback from resistance)
• 89k (return to the mid-range zone)

Important rule: this scenario is only valid if the price actually reaches the supply zone. No front-running trades. No assumptions. The market must confirm the level — then action can be taken.

Risk management in the zone of uncertainty

Fluctuations within the 87.5k–94.0k range will continue. This is not a mistake, it’s a system. Excessive trading here is a path where accounts quietly die, without drama.

Directional conviction only comes at the edges of the range, not in its middle. The middle is a place for patience, not speculation. Volume confirms balance here, not trend. This means you shouldn’t expect sharp moves without a clear breakout above 93k+ or a drop below 87.5k-.

The point is: only take signals from the extremes. Don’t trade the middle. Wait until the price either drops to demand or rises to supply. That’s where true trading ideas are born.

Regarding the possible pump: remember, rallies don’t start from assumptions but from confirmation. First, the price must digest liquidity, then show strength through volume and candle closes. Only then should you think about a pump. Until then — it’s just speculation.

Final principle: Patience beats prediction. In this market, the winner is the one who can wait without trading.