Bitcoin faces technical and macroeconomic pressures: Is the quantum algorithm diagram a threat or just a market debate?

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a sudden reversal as Bitcoin drops to $76,880 (down 2.46% in 24 hours), while gold and traditional safe-haven assets continue to surge. Bitcoin’s weakness has raised concerns about market structure and sparked ongoing debates about whether long-term threats like quantum computing—with algorithms such as Shor’s—are truly beginning to impact investor behavior. Analysts are divided into two camps: one arguing that the market is pricing in quantum risk, and the other asserting that Bitcoin is facing more conventional macro pressures.

Bitcoin Price Plummets as Safe-Haven Assets Dominate Globally

Since Donald Trump’s victory in November 2024, traditional assets have shown clear dominance over cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has only increased by −2.6% since the election, while silver has surged 205%, gold 83%, Nasdaq 24%, and the S&P 500 17.6%. Gold prices have reached a record high near $4,930 per ounce, continuing a months-long safe-haven rally driven by geopolitical tensions, debt concerns, and central banks accumulating gold aggressively.

In contrast, Bitcoin is currently about 30% below its peak in 2025, making cryptocurrencies behave more like high-risk assets rather than hedging tools. Wall Street’s stock market remains within a narrow accumulation range after failing to break through resistance levels of $90,000–$93,500, indicating a lack of momentum for long-term investors.

Gold Forecasted to Reach $23,000: When Will It Directly Converge with Bitcoin?

As precious metals continue to dominate capital flows, long-term bullish forecasts for gold are growing stronger. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, predicts that gold could reach between $12,000 and $23,000 per ounce over the next three to eight years. Supporting reasons include record gold accumulation by central banks, the money supply expanding at over 10% annually, and China increasing its gold reserves nearly tenfold in recent two years.

“If this cycle reflects the historic asset expansion of the 20th century, then gold’s upside potential is still very far,” Edwards said. Although the monthly RSI of gold has hit its most overbought levels since the 1970s, analysts believe that structural demand from central banks—not speculation—is driving this rally. ETF inflows and macro liquidity shifts are also contributing to the trend.

Shor’s Algorithm and the Quantum Threat: Reality or Fear?

Bitcoin’s persistent weakness has reignited the debate over the risks posed by quantum computing. Nic Carter, partner at Castle Island Ventures, revived this discussion last week, arguing that Bitcoin’s “mysterious” vulnerabilities reflect increasing market awareness of quantum threats. He suggests that quantum algorithms like Shor’s—capable of theoretically breaking elliptic curve cryptography used by Bitcoin—are beginning to influence investor behavior.

“Bitcoin’s performance decline is due to quantum technology,” Carter stated. “The market is speaking—but developers are not listening.” His comments immediately faced pushback from blockchain analysts and long-term investors, who argue that attributing Bitcoin’s stability issues to quantum fears is a fundamental misunderstanding of current market dynamics.

Market Structure, Not Quantum Risk, Explains Price Movements

Blockchain technology researchers argue that blaming Bitcoin’s stability on quantum risk is a misinterpretation of reality. Checkonchain analyst @Checkmatey notes that Bitcoin’s behavior reflects supply-driven cycles more than speculative technological threats. “Gold is favored because governments are buying gold instead of Treasuries,” he explains. “Bitcoin saw significant long-term holder selling in 2025—enough to surpass any previous bull market.”

Bitcoin investor and author Vijay Boyapati shares a similar view, pointing to a more specific reason: “The real explanation is the release of enormous supply once we hit a psychological threshold for large investors—$100,000.” On-chain data shows long-term holders significantly increased distribution as Bitcoin approached six figures, releasing supply to absorb new demand from ETFs and institutions, thus limiting further price increases.

Bitcoin Developers: Quantum-Resistant Upgrades Will Take Decades, Not Quarters

Despite renewed attention, most Bitcoin developers see quantum computing as a long-term manageable risk rather than a short-term market driver. Quantum machines capable of running algorithms like Shor’s are still far from practical deployment—technology experts estimate it will take many years to reach a real threat level.

Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, has repeatedly emphasized that even in worst-case scenarios, immediate or network-wide damage is unlikely. The Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP-360) outlines a roadmap for transitioning to quantum-resistant address formats, allowing gradual upgrades before any credible threat emerges. Developers stress that such transitions will take years, not market cycles—making quantum risk unlikely to explain Bitcoin’s short-term price weakness.

Traditional Finance Warns, but Implementation Timeline Remains Distant

Some traditional finance experts are beginning to consider quantum computing as a potential research avenue. Earlier this month, Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin from his sample portfolio, citing long-term quantum risks as a major concern. However, industry analysts note that the main challenge isn’t whether Bitcoin can adapt, but how long such upgrades would take if necessary—and that timeframe is measured in decades, not quarters.

Macro Pressures Drive the Narrative: Bitcoin Needs to Break $91,000–$93,500 to Recover

Currently, market participants believe Bitcoin remains trapped in a challenging macro environment, primarily due to rising global bond yields, trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and the shift of reserve assets into gold by central banks. Traders are more focused on capital preservation than speculative growth, creating strong resistance to new upward moves.

Therefore, traders are concentrating on key technical support/resistance levels rather than existential long-term risks. Bitcoin needs to regain the $91,000–$93,500 range to restore upward momentum and demonstrate sufficient buying power to counter outflows into safe assets. If Bitcoin cannot surpass these resistance levels, downside support will likely be between $85,000 and $88,000. Until monetary or geopolitical stability improves, analysts believe Bitcoin will continue reacting to macro shocks, while gold benefits from a historic shift in global capital flows. The debate over quantum algorithms may persist, but it appears that new short-term economic pressures are the primary factors shaping Bitcoin’s current market.