Yili Hua adds margin calls to shout bull market: Hope in despair?

Yili Hua Calls for Margin Coverage and Bullish Market: Hope in Despair?

Recently, a well-known domestic investor, Yili Hua, faced a margin call requirement due to his crypto asset positions. His liquidation price is believed to be around $1,800 for Bitcoin. However, at this moment of significant pressure on his personal account, Yili Hua publicly declared through social media and other channels that the current market has entered the “best buying opportunity.” This seemingly contradictory behavior quickly became a hot topic of discussion in the market.

1. Yili Hua’s “Warning Signs” and “Bold Calls”

2. Core Contradiction of the Event: Margin calls typically indicate that the assets held by investors have fallen in price and are close to their liquidation threshold, requiring additional funds to avoid forced liquidation. This is a classic signal of a market in decline and investors in trouble. Yet, Yili Hua is loudly bullish at this time, prompting multiple interpretations of his motives.

3. Divergent Market Interpretations: One view considers this a “cry for help” from deeply trapped investors trying to maintain market confidence and avoid panic selling that could impact their positions, casting doubt on his credibility. Another perspective sees this as the extreme expression of “fear others, be greedy yourself,” where seasoned investors who have experienced full market cycles and understand the harsh realities dare to declare against the trend under extreme pressure, perhaps genuinely believing that the bottom is near.

4. Historical References: In both traditional financial markets and crypto history, there are numerous cases of well-known investors insisting on their original judgments and calling for buying even when facing significant losses. Their success or failure ultimately depends on the accuracy of their trend judgment and the duration of extreme market sentiment.

Yili Hua’s personal situation and remarks are like a multifaceted prism, reflecting the extreme anxiety, divergence, and struggle among current market participants. Widening the perspective to include movements of other globally recognized market players may help piece together a clearer picture of market sentiment.

2. SoftBank’s Silence and the Bull-Bear Debate on Wall Street

3. SoftBank: “Vision” Cools Down, Reassessing Steps

● Once a major “accelerator” of the tech and crypto markets, SoftBank Group has shifted to a more cautious investment style after experiencing a global tech stock crash and record losses in its Vision Fund.

● SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son publicly stated that the company has entered a “defensive mode,” focusing more on cash flow and profitability.

● Although not explicitly targeting the crypto market, SoftBank’s overall contraction indicates that one of the key drivers of the previous bull market—additional capital and narratives—has temporarily receded. This collective shift by top-tier venture capital firms signals a cooling from liquidity frenzy.

2. Tom Lee and Fundstrat: Persistent Bullish Flag Bearers

● Tom Lee, a senior strategist at Wall Street and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, is one of the most prominent bullish analysts in the crypto space in recent years.

● Despite ongoing market downturns, Lee and his team recently maintained that Bitcoin’s “fair value” is significantly higher than current prices, citing fundamentals such as hash rate reaching new highs, long-term holders increasing their positions, and institutional infrastructure improving.

● He emphasizes that the market is undergoing a typical bear market bottoming process, and excessive pessimism could cause missed opportunities. Lee’s views represent a segment of Wall Street’s steadfast belief in the long-term value of crypto assets.

3. The Bears’ Warning: Macro Headwinds and Trust Crisis

● On the other side, analysts from institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs continue to emphasize the harsh macro environment. Persistent high inflation and aggressive rate hikes and balance sheet reduction by major economies are systematically draining risk appetite and liquidity from global markets.

● Furthermore, events like the Terra/Luna collapse, Three Arrows Capital bankruptcy, and FTX scandal have triggered a profound trust crisis, requiring longer recovery times for the crypto market itself. Bears believe that until macro turning points become clear and internal “toxins” are thoroughly cleared, the bottom remains elusive.

● Disagreements at the institutional level highlight that the current market is at a complex intersection of macro cycles, endogenous industry cycles, and technological belief cycles. Capital behavior often reveals more than words.

3. On-Chain Data and Capital Flows: Clues Behind Cold Numbers

Beyond celebrity opinions and institutional views, transparent blockchain data offers an alternative, more objective perspective on market sentiment and capital flow.

1. Long-term Holder (HODLer) Behavior: Reports from on-chain analytics firms like Glassnode show that despite sharp price volatility, the overall supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (addresses holding for over 155 days) has not significantly decreased recently, and some accumulation occurs at lower price points. This is often seen as a sign of “diamond hands” conviction and a potential indicator that the market is approaching a bottom.

2. Exchange Flows and Balances: Continuous outflows of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges may suggest investors prefer transferring assets into private wallets for long-term custody rather than preparing to sell at any moment. A sustained decline in exchange balances can help ease selling pressure.

3. Stablecoin Reserves: Changes in the total market cap of major stablecoins (like USDT, USDC) and their on-exchange holdings can be viewed as a “ammunition depot” of off-exchange waiting funds. If stablecoin market cap stops shrinking or begins to grow, and exchange stablecoin balances increase, it may indicate a buildup of potential buying power.

4. Futures Market Liquidations and Funding Rates: Extreme declines often coincide with concentrated liquidations of leveraged long positions in futures markets. After large-scale liquidations, short-term selling pressure diminishes. Meanwhile, perpetual contract funding rates remaining negative or near zero suggest that speculative long frenzy has largely subsided.

These on-chain signals are not absolute timing tools for the bottom, but collectively they depict a scene where “panic selling has occurred, some steadfast investors are beginning to absorb, but overall sentiment remains at a freezing point.” This aligns with the description by Yili Hua and others of a “very cheap but dare not buy” state, with data echoing each other.

4. Extreme Sentiment: Necessary but Not Sufficient for Market Bottom

An old saying in finance goes: “Markets are born in despair.” Yili Hua’s margin call and bullish calls, Tom Lee’s insistence on optimism amid market crashes, along with pervasive social media pessimism, sarcasm, and skepticism, vividly illustrate the extreme emotional state of the market.

1. Significance of Sentiment Indicators: Market sentiment indicators like the Fear & Greed Index, when they remain in the “extreme fear” zone for extended periods, often signal that most negative news has been priced in. At this point, any marginal improvement could trigger a significant rebound. Current market sentiment undoubtedly fits this pattern.

2. The Complexity of “Contrarian” Signals: However, sentiment bottoming does not mean prices will immediately and permanently reverse. Markets can remain in deep pessimism for a long time, even experiencing a more brutal “sell everything” final dip. Sentiment recovery requires catalysts such as clear inflation turning points, easing rate hike expectations, new positive narratives in crypto, or regulatory clarity.

3. The Trap and True Meaning of “Best Buying Opportunity”: For leveraged traders, attempting to “bottom fish” during extreme volatility and uncertain trends can lead to forced exits due to short-term fluctuations. Yili Hua’s own situation serves as a warning. The so-called “best buying opportunity” varies greatly depending on the investor’s capital type, investment horizon, and risk tolerance. For long-term dollar-cost averaging investors, the current zone is attractive; for short-term traders, it may still be a risky zone.

History shows that genuine market bottoms are often built amid silence, even mockery. The current pervasive despair and scattered “counter-trend” calls may be the faint glimmer of light at the end of the dark tunnel—but crossing it requires patience, caution, and deep faith in value. Markets never simply repeat history, but human nature and cyclical rhythms are always similar.