Shanghai Composite Index recovers above 4100 points, ChiNext Index rebounds after dipping, coal and photovoltaic sectors surge

The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance today. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.85%, closing at 4,102.20 points; the Shenzhen Component increased 0.21%, closing at 14,156.27 points; the ChiNext Index rebounded after hitting a low, with intraday declines reaching up to 2.4%, but ultimately closed slightly down by 0.4%, at 3,311.51 points. The combined trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 2.5 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 62.3 billion yuan compared to yesterday.

Industry sectors mostly gained, with coal, photovoltaic equipment, aviation airports, glass fiber, mining, and real estate development leading the gains. Gold, cultural media, gaming, internet services, and semiconductors saw the largest declines.

In individual stocks, over 3,200 stocks rose, with more than 70 hitting the daily limit. Coal stocks surged, with Yanzhou Energy, China Coal Energy, Yunmei Energy, and Meijin Energy hitting the limit. The photovoltaic concept stocks continued to soar, with Jinko Solar, Longi Green Energy, Shicong Energy, and Zerun New Energy all hitting the 20% daily limit. The civil aviation sector strengthened, with China Express Airlines and China Eastern Airlines hitting the limit.

Today’s Highlights

The Central No. 1 Document Released with Major Impact, Agricultural Sector Gains Benefits, List of Concept Stocks with Positive Earnings Announcements Released

On February 3rd, the Central No. 1 Document titled “Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Steadily Promoting Rural Revitalization” was officially published. A total of 17 grain concept stocks disclosed their 2025 earnings forecasts, with HanNeng Technology, Nongfa Seed Industry, Denghai Seed Industry, Tianhe Shares, Longping High-Tech, Huazi Industrial, and Sobo Protein all showing net profit increases. Shennong Seed Industry, Guangyu Group, and New Sai Shares achieved either a turnaround or reduced losses.

Collective Surge! External Positive News Fully Ignites Coal Sector

According to reports, this may be related to a news piece from Indonesia. Media reports indicate that the Indonesian government has proposed a significant production reduction plan, and the country’s miners have suspended spot coal exports. Data shows that China is Indonesia’s largest import market (imported 242 million tons in 2024, accounting for 42.73% of its exports). Suspension of exports will impact 5.3% of China’s thermal coal supply, increasing inventory pressure at eastern coastal power plants. Meanwhile, there are also reports of rising coal prices domestically.

NVIDIA Nears Agreement to Invest $20 Billion in OpenAI’s Latest Funding Round

According to reports, insiders revealed that NVIDIA is close to reaching an agreement to invest $20 billion in OpenAI as part of its latest funding round. This would be NVIDIA’s largest single investment in OpenAI. Sources said the deal is not yet finalized and terms may still change.

Industry Experts: Musk’s Team Surveyed Photovoltaic Companies Including TCL Zhonghuan, Jinko Solar, Jing Sheng Electromechanical, etc., Last Week

On February 4th, Jiemian News learned from industry insiders that last week, Musk’s team conducted surveys of Chinese photovoltaic companies including TCL Zhonghuan, Jinko Solar, and Jing Sheng Electromechanical. The companies did not directly respond to Jiemian News regarding the authenticity of this information. Earlier, Jinko Solar’s wiring staff publicly confirmed that the company had recently had contact with Musk’s team. Additionally, Jiemian News reporters learned that Musk’s team had also surveyed some photovoltaic equipment suppliers earlier.

Institutional Views

Zheshang Securities: Consumption Will Be the Most Important Countercyclical Variable in 2026, Optimistic on A-shares

Zheshang Securities’ Chief Economist Li Chao stated that, from the overall policy guidance, fiscal policy in 2026 should maintain an active stance with a certain deficit level. From a monetary policy perspective, moderate easing such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates will still exist. Regarding the key economic task for 2026, “domestic demand,” identified at the Central Economic Work Conference, Li Chao pointed out that from the perspective of expanding domestic demand, more attention should be paid to consumption in 2026. Historically, real estate was the main countercyclical variable in expanding demand, while consumption was often viewed as a procyclical variable. In the future, the market needs to recognize that consumption will be the most important countercyclical variable. “For China’s stock market in 2026, there’s no need to focus excessively on interest rates, but rather on risk appetite. If market confidence can remain relatively optimistic over the long term, the stock market may continue its ‘slow bull’ trend through valuation uplift,” Li Chao said.

CICC: Bull Market in Global Assets Has Continued Potential

CICC’s research report states that, given the current dollar liquidity system and the strong constraints formed by large fiscal trends, choosing who will be the Federal Reserve Chair will not significantly impact the normal expansion of the balance sheet. The bull market in global assets has the potential to continue. This year, we remain optimistic about Chinese and U.S. stock markets benefiting from the trend of dollar liquidity improvement (especially Chinese stocks, which are significantly underweighted by global active funds), as well as gold, silver, and copper.

Tianfeng Securities: This Year’s “Spring Market” Volatility May Be More Persistent

Tianfeng Securities’ research report suggests that this year’s reinforced pattern includes: first, the “spring volatility” trend has a more solid foundation. Whether it’s the policy expectations at the start of the “14th Five-Year Plan,” the outlook for global liquidity easing, or the trend of residents reallocating funds into equities, these factors may strengthen the market’s upward pattern after the holiday, making the “Spring Market” more sustained. Second, the pre-emptive and intensified trends in consumption and travel. Due to the “historically long nine-day Spring Festival holiday,” consumption demand has been released earlier than in previous years, and travel and consumption scales are expected to break previous records, with market expectations for a “good start to the economy” becoming more stable. Third, the bond market may see intensified range-bound fluctuations. In January, the central bank announced a 0.25 percentage point structural interest rate cut, reducing the need for short-term aggregate rate cuts. If liquidity easing during the holiday period helped bond market recovery, then after the holiday, with accelerated local government bond issuance and warming policy expectations, the probability of interest rate adjustments may increase.