Bitcoin Bull Run Cycles: The Bear Trap Pattern at Month 6

The cryptocurrency market has demonstrated a striking cyclical pattern over the past decade. Looking at historical data, a clear rhythm emerges in how Bitcoin completes its major bull run phases — and it often involves a crucial inflection point marked by bear traps during consolidation phases.

The Cyclical Pattern — How Bear Traps Spark Bull Runs

Examining BTC’s major uptrends reveals a consistent timeline across multiple cycles. In 2013, the bull run maintained momentum for approximately 9 months, but the critical trigger came after a significant bear trap shook out weak hands in the 6th month of that cycle. The 2017 cycle followed an identical blueprint: another 9-month bull run with the bear trap occurring around month 6, followed by the final explosive leg upward.

The 2021 cycle replicated this same pattern precisely. After a powerful bear trap in month 6 that tested investor conviction, the subsequent months delivered some of the cycle’s strongest gains. These weren’t coincidences — they represent a pattern in market psychology where capitulation events (bear traps) precede renewed conviction and higher prices.

Month 6: The Historical Ignition Point After Consolidation

Why does month 6 consistently emerge as the pivotal moment? During this period, market consolidation reaches a critical juncture. After months of gains, price naturally oscillates and builds support. The bear trap — a sharp downward move that triggers panic selling and shakes out inexperienced traders — clears the market of weak longs. Once that cleansing occurs, institutions and conviction-holders recognize the opportunity, and the bull run reignites with fresh momentum.

This mechanism appears driven by market cycles of euphoria, fear, and capitulation. The bear trap serves as a pressure relief valve that signals market maturity. Once it clears, the remaining uptrend tends to accelerate significantly.

2026 Market Position — Following the Bear Trap Framework

Fast forward to 2026: we’re currently positioned in the sixth month of the current cycle. Historical precedent suggests we may be approaching or already experiencing a bear trap consolidation phase similar to 2013, 2017, and 2021.

Current market data reflects this transitional period:

• Bitcoin (BTC): Trading at $71.57K, down 5.88% in the last 24 hours
• Ethereum (ETH): Trading at $2.13K, down 5.52% in the last 24 hours

These pullbacks align with historical bear trap behavior — sharp corrections that test conviction but ultimately create foundations for the next leg of the bull run. The question isn’t whether volatility occurs, but whether investors recognize these bear traps as buying opportunities rather than selling signals.

The pattern suggests that if history continues to rhyme, the consolidation and bear trap clearing we may be experiencing now could mark the beginning of the next explosive phase in the current cycle.