The Population of China Around 2050: Demographic Decline and New Economic Realities

In 2025, China faces an unprecedented demographic turning point. While the country had approximately 1.4 billion residents this year, the latest projections suggest a radical transformation of its demographic structure. According to the joint report by Southwest University of Finance, Tsinghua University, and other research institutions, China’s population is expected to follow an unprecedented decline trajectory in the coming decades, completely reshaping the country’s economic and social landscape.

Population Projections: from 1.4 billion to 460 million

Researchers modeled three distinct scenarios to understand the possible evolution of China’s population. The moderate fertility scenario (TFR=1.05) projects a population of about 1.25 billion in 2050, then a drop to 460 million in 2100. After 2050, the decline accelerates sharply, with an average decrease of one billion people every 6.85 years.

The low fertility scenario (TFR=0.72) is even more pessimistic: by the end of the century, the population would no longer reach 320 million, placing China seventh globally, behind India, Pakistan, and Nigeria. Conversely, the high fertility scenario (TFR=1.31) forecasts 590 million inhabitants in 2100, though still marking a significant decline.

These figures reveal a striking reality: the country’s population is gradually returning to its 1950 levels, erasing 75 years of sustained demographic growth.

From growth to demographic decline: 75 years of transformation

To grasp the scale of change, it’s necessary to trace the population evolution over seven decades. In 1950, just after the founding of New China, the population was 552 million. Growth quickly accelerated: improvements in health conditions, decreased mortality, and natural expansion.

By 1980, the population surpassed 981 million. The family planning policy, which became more restrictive, began to slow growth. In 2000, the country reached 1.263 billion residents, and demographic growth slowed significantly. The demographic dividend peaked: a rapidly expanding working-age population supported a still-moderate dependent load.

In 2020, the population peaked at 1.411 billion before a slight decline. In 2024, the number of births plummeted to 9.54 million, corresponding to a birth rate of only 6.77 ‰. It is from 2025 that demographic decline truly begins its inexorable course.

2050 and beyond: when negative growth becomes reality

The shift into negative growth is not just a demographic statistic: it’s a civilizational rupture. By 2050, the central scenario projects an average of 1.25 billion inhabitants, a reduction of over 150 million compared to 2025. This transition triggers a cascade of effects throughout the economy.

Aging intensifies alongside the population decline. The proportion of people over 60 years old increases dramatically, while the age pyramid inverts. The social burden grows exponentially: fewer workers must support more retirees.

Real estate in crisis: regional differences and implications

The most tangible consequence of demographic decline hits the real estate sector. Without population growth, housing prices cannot sustain their historic rise. Major metropolises like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are expected to maintain some stability thanks to continued internal migration, keeping residual demand alive.

In contrast, small cities and rural areas will face market implosion. Villages with a high temporary diaspora but a weak permanent base will experience real estate collapse. Lower-tier cities outside tourist zones will see both prices and capital appreciation prospects plummet.

For urban migrants considering building an ancestral home in their homeland, the recommendation is clear: rural real estate investment is no longer a viable wealth strategy. It’s better to save for future generations than to lock capital into depreciating assets.

Beyond the market: social pressure and demographics

The decline in birth rates masks a deeper socio-economic reality. Unlike previous societies where each child contributed a net economic benefit to the family, modernity has reversed this equation. Today, raising a child requires massive investments in education, health, and opportunities, with no guaranteed return. This inverted equation creates existential pressure on couples.

The experiences of South Korea and Japan offer a sobering parallel. These nations, enriched by decades of rapid growth, are facing equally collapsing demographics. Social competition pressure, or “involution,” discourages couples from having children. A child no longer appears on the family’s economic ledger but becomes an additional burden in an era of fierce competition.

This dynamic creates a vicious cycle: social pressure raises living costs, reducing couples’ quality of life, leading them to forgo procreation. The cycle perpetuates itself.

Implications for the economy and investment

As China’s population contracts after 2050, the competitive pressure of the “race for wealth” will diminish. Paradoxically, this social easing could lead to a loss of economic dynamism. Small businesses lacking competitiveness will disappear. Wages will rise due to labor scarcity, eroding the competitiveness of labor-intensive exports. A mindset of gradually detaching from materialism may emerge, draining collective energy.

The Chinese stock market remains an enigma. In theory, listed companies represent the most competitive firms in the country. In practice, the market functions like a legalized casino, where stock prices depend on the balance between new accounts opened, capital inflows, and outflows. A shrinking population potentially means fewer new investors, less vigorous capital flows, and a less dynamic market.

The same principle applies to cryptocurrencies. Market cyclicality remains governed by capital inflows and outflows, according to Warren Buffett’s famous maxim: “When others are greedy, I’m afraid; when others are afraid, I want to buy.” Understanding this dynamic is key to successful investing, but facing such an uncertain demographic future, every investment becomes a gamble on the unknown.