Bitcoin Volatility: How US Economic Data Is Affected by Government Shutdown

ResearchChadButBroke · 2026-02-05T04:09:34+00:00

The impending US government shutdown is causing significant concern in the Bitcoin community, with predictions of an 80% chance. Delays in US economic data could lead to market instability, prompting ETF outflows and potential price drops ranging from 3% to 30%. The situation's outcome hinges on the shutdown's duration and data release timelines.

ResearchChadButBroke

2026-02-05 04:09:34

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The US government shutdown until January 31 is occupying the Bitcoin community’s attention. Market participants estimate the probability of this scenario at around 80 percent. This administrative deadlock could have significant consequences for the crypto market, especially since the release of important US economic data may be delayed.

Market Participants Expect Delays in US Economic Data

NS3.AI’s current analysis shows a critical risk: if the authorities remain idle, the release of labor market data, inflation indicators, and other economic figures will be delayed. This information gap significantly increases uncertainty in the markets. Traders and investors operate without reliable reference points, which can lead to impulsive reactions. The missing US economic data creates a vacuum that investors try to fill with defensive positions.

ETF Outflows as a Potential Trigger for Bitcoin Decline

Particularly relevant is the risk of ETF outflows. During times of market uncertainty, institutional investors reduce their Bitcoin holdings. If US economic data remains absent and market volatility increases, this process could accelerate. The combination of information scarcity and risk aversion drives capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, directly impacting price discovery.

Price Scenarios: From Moderate to Significant Corrections

Analysts outline a wide range of possible price movements. In the most pessimistic case, Bitcoin prices could fall by 30 percent and test the $60,000 mark. A more moderate scenario suggests declines of around 3 percent. This range illustrates how differently market participants assess the consequences of the government shutdown. The final outcome largely depends on how long the administrative outage lasts and when reliable US economic data becomes available again.

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