Bitcoin and Gold: The Race of Hard Assets and the Potential for Outperformance Ahead

In the current asset market landscape, the question of the relative performance between Bitcoin and gold is becoming increasingly urgent. To better understand Bitcoin’s long-term potential, we need to analyze its supply mechanism, historical price volatility, and future prospects of these two hard assets.

As of February 2026, gold has experienced an impressive growth of nearly 100% over the past year, while Bitcoin has recorded a decline of 27.58% during the same period. This discrepancy raises a bigger question: can Bitcoin attract significant benefits similar to gold? According to Cointelegraph, this is one of the hottest debates among crypto investors.

Gold Grows 100%: Why Bitcoin Still Lags Behind

Bitcoin’s current performance remains weaker, but when looking at its fundamental supply mechanism, the picture is entirely different. Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, with about 1 million coins still unmined. By February 2026, 95.16% of the total Bitcoin supply has been issued, with an annual inflation rate of only about 0.81%.

In contrast, gold has no hard supply restrictions. Gold miners can increase production when gold prices rise, which is completely different from Bitcoin. Pierre Rochard, CEO of Bitcoin Bonds, emphasizes that gold lacks the difficulty adjustment and halving events that Bitcoin has, leading to a situation where: when prices increase, investment in gold mining also increases, reducing the effectiveness of controlled inflation.

Bitcoin Halving and Difficulty Adjustment: Advantage or Structural Disadvantage?

Bitcoin follows a predetermined issuance schedule, gradually decreasing through halving events until reaching the cap of 21 million. This creates a superior economic mechanism: supply is mathematically controlled, independent of external factors.

To clarify further, the 30-year history of gold production shows a continuous upward trend. From about 2,300 tons in 1995, gold increased to 3,500 tons in 2018, and reached a record high of 3,672 tons in 2025. This growth reflects economists’ forecasts: when gold prices are high, the mining industry expands, increasing supply.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate is expected to continue decreasing to 0.41% after the next halving in March 2028, according to Bitbo data. This mechanism creates an asset with predictable inflation, quite different from gold.

Market Capitalization: Too Big a Gap or Growth Opportunity?

Currently, Bitcoin’s market capitalization is about $1.415 trillion, representing only a small fraction of the estimated total gold market cap of approximately $41.69 trillion. This ratio is significantly lower than last year.

However, Jeff Walton, risk director at Strive — a Bitcoin treasury company, views this from a different perspective: the capitalization gap is not a barrier but an opportunity. With a smaller market cap, even modest demand from investors seeking crypto protection can lead to significant percentage growth for Bitcoin.

The 5% Scenario: From Gold to Bitcoin

In reality, Bitcoin can still attract a small portion of the budget from investors seeking exposure to hard assets to hedge against currency risks, geopolitical risks, or to preserve long-term purchasing power.

To illustrate this potential, if just 5% of current demand shifting from gold moves to Bitcoin, based on current valuations, this would amount to over $2 trillion in new capital flowing into Bitcoin. This scenario could lead to a more than 116% increase in Bitcoin’s market cap, with a target price potentially reaching around $192,000.

Although optimistic, this scenario is logically grounded: Bitcoin only needs to capture a small part of the traditional gold market to enter a completely new growth phase. This underscores Bitcoin’s extraordinary potential if it continues to attract attention from conventional investors.