Galaxy Securities: Extended Holidays Empowerment, Platforms and Duty-Free Sector Welcome Benefits

Galaxy Securities Research Report states that the 2026 Spring Festival holiday is called the “Strongest Spring Festival Holiday in history.” The overall travel market during the holiday shows high prosperity, with domestic and international travel demand fully released. OTA platforms, as the core entry point for travel bookings, fully handle various reservations such as domestic tours, border crossings, flights, and tourism products. Pre-holiday bookings have significantly increased year-on-year, benefiting platform revenue and profit growth. The leading duty-free industry players benefit from the expectation of Hainan’s closedown and the rising popularity of tourism in Hainan, with extended stays driving growth in duty-free consumption and delivering performance dividends.

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【Galaxy Social Service Consulting Hui Min】Industry Dynamics 2026.1 | Super Long Holidays Empowerment, Platforms and Duty-Free Sectors Welcome Benefits

Key Points

Event: The social service industry’s fluctuation this month is 5.93%, with sub-sector changes as follows: Professional Services (10.37%), Hotels & Catering (5.56%), Tourism & Scenic Spots (4.10%), Education (1.29%)

Industry Important News & Updates: 1) On January 29, the General Office of the State Council issued the “Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption,” focusing on nine major areas including transportation, housekeeping, cultural tourism, and sports; 2) Hainan offshore duty-free sales are booming: as of January 27, after Hainan’s closedown, offshore duty-free sales reached 6.28 billion yuan, with 81,000 shoppers, up 35.9% and 21% respectively year-on-year.

Spring Festival Travel Data Preview:

The Spring Festival travel rush may set a new record, with increased railway and civil aviation capacity: According to information from the State Council press conference, the total cross-regional population flow during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to reach 9.5 billion person-times (+5.3% YoY), with a slowdown of 0.9 percentage points compared to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays. This is mainly due to the longer Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays in 2025, which concentrated travel demand and led to higher travel numbers. Among travel modes: 1) Railway passenger volume during the Spring Festival is expected to reach 540 million person-times (+5.1% YoY), with a 2.5 percentage point increase compared to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, benefiting from additional and optimized train services, with overall seating capacity up 5.3% YoY; 2) Civil aviation volume is expected to reach 95 million passengers (+5.3% YoY), with a 1.9 percentage point increase compared to the holidays, supported by the Civil Aviation Administration’s guarantee of about 19,400 flights daily (+5%). According to Flight Map data, as of January 29, domestic flight bookings exceeded 7.16 million, with daily ticket bookings up 16% YoY. High-frequency booking data and official capacity forecasts cross-verify the strong demand for civil aviation travel. Coupled with steady flight supply, this is expected to support simultaneous improvement in Spring Festival civil aviation passenger flow and revenue levels.

The super long holiday combined with “making up” days for leave has led to concentrated travel demand: This year’s Spring Festival holiday is called the “Strongest in history,” with an added “5 days off for 15 days of leave” pattern, significantly increasing early return trips and travel. Flight booking platform Flight Map shows that domestic flight bookings from February 2-14 increased by 8% YoY. Meanwhile, OTA platforms like Ctrip and Tongcheng have reported that this year’s Spring Festival is expected to be the hottest in recent years.

1. Domestic Tours: Diversified travel modes emerge, with destinations resonating across the north and south. Domestic travel shows a pattern of “southward for warmth, northward for snow,” with bright performances across various segments. Benefiting from the first Spring Festival after the border closure and favorable climate, Hainan’s tourism heat has surged. Data from Tongcheng shows that as of January 27, hotel bookings in Hainan increased by 191%, with Haikou and Sanya hotel bookings up 227% and 167% YoY respectively, likely boosting duty-free consumption. Snow tourism is also popular, with Harbin ranking among the top destinations on platforms like Ctrip, Tongcheng, and Tuniu during the holiday. Snow resorts in Jilin, Liaoning, and Xinjiang remain hot, with ski resort bookings at Changbai Mountain Wanda and Wanfeng Tonghua increasing about 15% YoY during the holiday.

2. Border Crossing & International Travel: Visa-free travel combined with the super long holiday continues to boost market vitality. Outbound travel sees rising popularity of new visa-free countries like Russia and Turkey, with Tongcheng data showing bookings for flights and related products to these countries up 113% and 248% YoY as of January 27. The extended holiday also broadens residents’ travel radius. According to Zhongxin, deep European tour bookings have surged, with outbound travel increasing 90% YoY. For inbound travel, “coming to China for Spring Festival” has become a new trend. Benefiting from the latest visa-free policies, Ctrip reports that inbound bookings for Russia and South Korea increased 471% and 95% YoY respectively, indicating potential for cross-border consumption growth.

Investment Recommendations

The overall travel market during the 2026 Spring Festival shows high prosperity, with domestic and international travel demand fully released. OTA platforms, as the core booking channels, handle various reservations such as domestic tours, border crossings, flights, and tourism products. Pre-holiday bookings have significantly increased YoY, benefiting platform revenue and profit growth. Leading duty-free companies benefit from expectations of Hainan’s closedown and rising tourism in Hainan, with longer stays driving duty-free consumption and delivering performance dividends.

Risk Warnings

Risks of intensified industry competition; macroeconomic downturn risks; policy risks.

(Source: People’s Financial News)