The US-India trade agreement releases positive signals, and the Indian stock market hits multi-year highs

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The signing of the India-U.S. trade agreement has triggered a chain reaction in the Indian financial markets. This week, the Indian stock market experienced a significant rally, with the rupee against the US dollar posting its largest single-day gain in seven years, and market sentiment clearly improving. According to Jin10 data, this positive news temporarily alleviated foreign investors’ pessimistic outlook on the Indian market, injecting new vitality into the market.

Trade Agreement Eases Market Concerns

Tariff adjustments and the optimization of trade terms directly impact investors’ risk assessments. Michael Bourke, an analyst at M&G Investments, pointed out that although the agreement improved market sentiment in the short term, this shift in sentiment does not necessarily translate into immediate growth in corporate profits. This means that the stock market’s rise driven by optimistic trade expectations carries a certain “sentiment premium.”

India’s Stock Market Needs Fundamental Improvement for Continued Support

Although the Indian stock market is currently near its historical highs, the sustainability of this outlook remains a concern. Industry insiders note that India lacks leading companies in the AI industry, making its stock market particularly vulnerable to the global AI boom. To attract sustained capital inflows, real improvements in corporate profitability and strong economic fundamentals are essential. Relying solely on policy expectations is insufficient to maintain long-term gains; the actual growth data of Indian companies must keep pace with market expectations.

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