NIO expects to turn a quarterly profit for the first time in Q4 2025, causing the stock price to rise accordingly

On February 5th, NIO Group (NYSE: NIO; HKEX: 9866; SGX: NIO) announced its Q4 2025 earnings forecast, expecting to record its first quarterly adjusted operating profit. The market responded positively, with U.S. stocks rising over 11% in pre-market trading at one point, and as of the time of writing, up 9.68%.

The announcement states that based on an initial assessment of unaudited consolidated management accounts and existing data, NIO’s adjusted operating profit (non-GAAP, excluding share-based compensation expenses) for Q4 2025 is expected to be between 700 million and 1.2 billion RMB, approximately $100 million to $172 million. In the same period in 2024, NIO reported an adjusted operating loss of 5.5436 billion RMB, marking a transition from loss to profit. According to GAAP, NIO’s operating profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be between 200 million and 700 million RMB, roughly $29 million to $100 million. NIO stated that the profit growth is mainly attributable to three factors. First, vehicle sales continued to rise in Q4 2025, laying a foundation for revenue growth; second, product mix optimization led to an increase in vehicle gross margins; third, the company implemented comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency measures, effectively improving profitability structure.

According to publicly available financial data, NIO has been in a loss-making state for several consecutive years. The expected profit in this quarter is very significant for the company.

Looking at recent trends, NIO’s Hong Kong stock price has declined over the past three months, falling from HKD 54.90 on November 11, 2025, to HKD 36.56 on February 5, 2026, a decrease of 33.41%. On the Hong Kong stock market, NIO-SW closed at HKD 36.56 on February 5, up 0.96 HKD or 2.70% from the previous trading day, with a latest market capitalization of HKD 90.4 billion.

In line with the earnings forecast, NIO’s stock price experienced noticeable volatility following the announcement.

In the U.S. stock market, NIO closed at $4.44 on February 4, down $0.11 or 2.42% from the previous trading day. However, in pre-market trading on February 5, the stock price surged over 10%, reaching $4.55, reflecting market optimism about the profit forecast.

Founded in November 2014, NIO is a pioneer in the global smart electric vehicle market, with three major brands: NIO, Leado, and Firefly, focusing respectively on high-end smart electric vehicles, family smart electric vehicles, and high-end smart compact cars.

NIO specifically notes that the data in this announcement is based on preliminary reviews of unaudited consolidated management accounts and has not yet been audited by independent auditors or the audit committee. Final figures may differ from the Q4 2025 and full-year performance announcements. Additionally, the adjusted operating profit metric used by the company is a non-GAAP measure, excluding non-cash share-based compensation expenses, aiming to better reflect core business trends. However, this metric does not replace GAAP operating profit data, and investors should review all financial information carefully and assess investment risks prudently.