Will the 2026 Bitcoin Ramadan market fail? On-chain data reveals a new structure in BTC price

Every year during the Islamic month of Ramadan, cryptocurrency traders often see it not just as a religious holiday but also as a speculative trading window. Reviewing data from 2019 to 2025, Bitcoin has shown a remarkably similar pattern in six out of seven Ramadan periods: a price surge at the start of the month, a mid-month slowdown, and a weak, choppy finish.

However, the 2026 Ramadan (expected around late February or early March) has started very differently from previous years. According to Gate data, as of February 24, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at $63,815.7, down 1.53% in 24 hours, with a nearly 26% decline over the past 30 days. This sharply contrasts with the historical pattern of “rallying at the start of Ramadan.”

Familiar script, reversed order

The so-called “Ramadan market” over the past six years was not simply a “rise,” but a specific temporal pattern: early volatility, mid-month weakness, and a late-month correction.

But in 2026, the first page of this script has been rewritten. This year’s Ramadan did not see a clean rally; instead, it experienced a narrow range of consolidation followed by a sharp “flush,” with Bitcoin briefly approaching a 24-hour low of $63,418.3 and even touching recent support levels. Although the market attempted to rebound afterward, this “drop first, bounce later” sequence feels unfamiliar to traders accustomed to previous years’ rhythms.

Bitcoin price chart over the past week, data source: Gate

Nevertheless, subtle familiar signs remain: intense price swings, rapid shifts in trading sentiment, and the fragility of rebounds—all core elements still present. It’s just that this time, the market’s initial strength is noticeably weaker than in previous years.

On-chain data reveal dual signals

Why does Bitcoin’s 2026 market appear so weak? On-chain data may offer some clues.

• Compression of the buying power index: Data shows that the buying power index on major exchanges like Binance has fallen to historically low levels. From a contrarian perspective, this usually indicates selling pressure is waning, suggesting conditions ripe for a technical rebound.

Buying power index decline, source: CryptoQuant

• Structural decline in network activity: Another key indicator—the number of active Bitcoin addresses—has been decreasing for six consecutive months. This is a significant structural warning, indicating that genuine user demand and market participation remain subdued. In such a demand-scarce environment, any rebound is likely to face heavy profit-taking and resistance.

Bitcoin active addresses, source: CryptoQuant

Additionally, VanEck’s latest on-chain report confirms this view. The report notes that while long-term holders (over 1 year) are slowing their sell-off, miners are experiencing profit margin pressures leading to a reduction in hash rate. Historically, this often signals stronger future returns but also reflects current mining economic stress.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis and Outlook

Overall, the 2026 Ramadan Bitcoin market appears more like a “bottoming out” phase rather than a “trend reversal.” Short-term holders (STH) are still at a loss, and although panic selling has eased, this typically indicates a period of uncertain bottoming.

Based on Gate’s predictive models, Bitcoin’s average price in 2026 is projected at $65,837.2, with potential fluctuations between $47,402.78 and $67,812.31. As of this writing, BTC’s market cap is approximately $1.31 trillion, with a market share of 55.37%, remaining a key market indicator.

Conclusion

In summary, the likelihood of Bitcoin repeating its “festival rally” during the 2026 Ramadan is decreasing. Past patterns offer a temporal reference but not directional guidance. While there are signs of potential rebounds, before demand truly recovers, prices are more likely to oscillate with significant resistance.

For traders, instead of chasing the next “Ramadan miracle,” it’s better to focus on data, on-chain activity, and macro liquidity changes to understand the real market dynamics.