The U.S. Democratic Party plans to introduce legislation to restrict prediction markets, raising concerns over insider trading related to the Iran war.

ZkProver · 2026-03-08T04:31:13+00:00

U.S. Senator Chris Murphy warns that someone is betting on an early U.S.-Iran war, implying insider information. He and Representative Mike Levin are drafting legislation to strengthen regulation of prediction markets to prevent profit from military actions.

ZkProver

2026-03-08 04:31:13

Abstract generation in progress

ChainCatcher reports that according to market sources, U.S. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy posted a video on the X platform stating that last Friday someone placed a “very specific bet” that “the U.S. will go to war with Iran on Saturday.” He pointed out that it is clear that someone close to Trump knew about the Saturday action in advance, and these bettors likely had insider information. Murphy warned that if such war betting continues, people around the president could profit from it and “push us into war.”

Last Saturday, multiple related bets were widely circulated on Polymarket. Reuters reported that Murphy and Democratic Congressman Mike Levin are working on drafting legislation to strengthen regulation of prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Levin said profiting from foreknowledge of military actions is “absolutely illegal.” He noted that the Commodity Exchange Act prohibits contracts related to war, terrorism, and other “against public interest” events, but current rules give prediction markets too much freedom.

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