I advise you not to rely on patterns like consecutive bullish or bearish months to predict the market.


Historically, there has never been a month with six consecutive bearish candles. Does that mean it won't happen this time? Nonsense. Let's set aside whether such patterns have any underlying principles. From a mathematical perspective, they are all probabilistic events. Let AI calculate:
From August 1, 2011, to now, there have been 176 monthly candles. In 176 months of random ups and downs, the probability of experiencing at least one streak of 5 consecutive months of decline is approximately 93.2%, and the probability of a 6-month decline streak is 73.7%.
Furthermore, the definition of candle closing time is arbitrary—some define it at 8 AM, others at 12 PM. For monthly candles, months can have 31, 30, or 28 days.
A one-day difference can easily cause the candle shape to be off.
Has there ever been a year after the halving where the annual candle closed bearish? Won't 2025 close bearish?
Looking at the bigger picture, anything can happen.
View Original
post-image
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
  • Reward
  • Comment
  • Repost
  • Share
Comment
0/400
No comments
  • Pin