CITIC Securities Futures: Caustic Soda Futures Rebound Driven by Export Expectations and Supply Contraction

Recently, caustic soda futures rebounded due to export expectations, liquid chlorine balance, and spring maintenance anticipation, while spot prices stabilized at low levels. On the supply side, affected by the reduction in ethylene-based plant operations domestically and abroad, there is an overall expectation of supply contraction. On the demand side, the rise in alumina production has boosted basic demand, and downstream industries such as chemicals and dyeing are gradually resuming operations. Overall non-aluminum demand remains moderate, making it difficult to generate strong upward momentum. Export inquiries have increased due to geopolitical influences, providing some support for destocking, but the effect is limited under the high domestic inventory levels. In the short term, the market is mainly driven by sentiment and supply contraction expectations, making prices more likely to rise than fall. In the medium to long term, oversupply and weak demand recovery continue to suppress prices, with limited room for rebound, likely resulting in continued low-level fluctuations. Key factors to monitor include liquid chlorine prices, plant maintenance intensity, and the sustainability of overseas orders. (CITIC Construction Investment Futures)