Real Estate Document No. 38 Triggers "Land" Supply-Side Reform; Can New Policies Solidify Core Urban Areas' "Price Stabilization" Expectations?

1. What happened? “Document No. 38 on Real Estate” Disturbs the Market

In March 2026, the Ministry of Natural Resources and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration jointly issued the “Notice on Further Improving Natural Resource Element Guarantee,” commonly known as “Document No. 38 on Real Estate.” This document is not long, but every clause hits the core of the land supply system for real estate.

1. Policy Combo, Forcing Inventory Reorganization:

First, “Incremental and Stock Linking.” Want to add new construction land in the future? You can, but you must first activate an equivalent amount of existing land. The new indicators for local governments have become a hot commodity.

Second, “Cut off” commercial housing. Priority is given to major projects and public welfare when adding new construction land; in principle, it is not used for real estate development. In other words, trying to build commercial housing on farmland? That route is closed.

Third, a green light for existing stock. Large-scale development within urban development boundaries no longer requires planning; in urban village renovations, corner and interstitial lands (not exceeding 10% of the project area), if used for affordable housing, can be approved for new land use procedures.

With these three measures combined, the clear intention is to force local governments to reorganize their inventories and not always think about outward expansion.

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