Hexun Investment Advisor Gao Luming: Collective Rebound! Will It Rise Today?

On March 17, Hexun Investment Advisor Gao Luming stated that a major late-night news event hit the markets, with concept stocks in European and American markets rising strongly. How will the market move today? Can we expect the upward rebound everyone is hoping for? How should we respond now? First, looking at the news: yesterday, senior officials explicitly emphasized the need to accelerate the development of a new generation of intelligent manufacturing systems and promote major infrastructure network construction during a meeting; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also said it will moderately advance layout plans, building new information infrastructure such as 5G and intelligent computing, creating an upgraded version of 5G processing industry interconnectedness. These messages are mainly positive for artificial intelligence, information communication, and related sectors. Additionally, we are currently negotiating the latest trade talks with the U.S., and the results are still favorable, with some preliminary consensus reached. Continued attention is needed, as this has a significant impact on A-shares and the global markets.

Next, let’s talk about the market. I believe today’s market has a higher probability of rebounding, but whether it can hold depends on a few key points. First, although there was no new deterioration in the external situation yesterday, it has not fully ended and remains an important factor disturbing global markets. Rumors say that the U.S. might send warships for escort, and whether conflicts escalate later is a key focus for today’s trading and future developments. Until this matter is fully resolved, it will continue to cause significant disturbance to global markets. Second, although there was a rebound externally, A-shares also saw funds supporting a bottoming and recovery yesterday, which helps today’s rebound. However, whether today’s rebound is weak or strong depends mainly on major sectors, especially securities firms and insurance. The index has tested bottom twice previously, but if these large-cap sectors do not rally, the market will only experience a weak rebound, typically lasting 2-3 days before falling back. Moreover, last Friday, the market broke below multiple moving averages, which have now shifted from support to resistance. The pressure above the index is considerable, and breaking through these resistance levels requires large-cap sectors to step up and show support. Otherwise, the market may only oscillate with small rebounds, and if problems re-emerge, it could fall again. This is a key risk to watch.

In terms of trading strategy, today’s focus should be on the first half-hour of trading. The market needs to give quick feedback; since yesterday showed a clear bottoming and recovery pattern, it indicates funds are starting to act. Therefore, the market must show a clear upward push within half an hour to confirm strong buying power. Additionally, trading volume must increase; without volume expansion, a strong rebound is unlikely. Meanwhile, before large-cap sectors rally, internal market rotation will continue. If previously emphasized sectors like power and grid-related stocks fall again, caution is needed. Low-positioned stocks that have not broken support can still be held, especially those near the 60-day moving average, as there are many low-priced stocks capable of forming rotation rebounds. Currently, it’s important to assess specific stocks rather than blindly sell off due to overall market strength or weakness. But remember, as long as the market does not show a strong upward push, overall positions should not be too heavy—moderate positions are recommended, ideally not exceeding a medium level.

(Edited by: Zhao Yanping HF094)

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