"Super Strong El Niño Will Cause Hottest Year" Trends Nationwide, Fact or Fiction? Expert Responds →

Recently, topics such as “The next two years may become the hottest years in history” and “Super El Niño phenomenon may occur on Earth” have trended on the internet, attracting widespread public attention. Several media outlets report that multiple global research institutions predict a strong El Niño may develop later this year, disrupting the global climate. This could not only trigger extreme heat, floods, droughts, and other disasters but also further raise global temperatures, potentially pushing summer temperatures this year and next to record highs. In response to these societal concerns, reporters interviewed experts from the China Meteorological Administration for insights on these issues.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a coupled ocean-atmosphere oscillation occurring in the tropical Pacific with a cycle of 3 to 7 years, representing natural variability in the climate system. ENSO phases are generally indicated by the duration and strength of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (deviations from the climate average) in a fixed region of the central-eastern tropical Pacific.

• If the 3-month moving average SST anomaly remains above 0.5°C for five months, it indicates a warm phase, called El Niño;
• If it remains below -0.5°C for five months, it indicates a cold phase, called La Niña;
• If it fluctuates between -0.5°C and 0.5°C, it is considered a neutral state.

Image source: National Climate Center

Possible Entry into El Niño State in Late Spring

Based on the latest monitoring data and predictions from various domestic and international climate models, the China Meteorological Administration’s National Climate Center analyzes that La Niña conditions are ending, and a neutral phase is expected to follow. The SST in the tropical central-eastern Pacific is likely to continue warming, with the potential for an El Niño to develop in late spring.

Climate expert Liu Yunyun explains that, historically, about one-third of La Niña events end with an El Niño in the same year. Different climate models worldwide predict varying timings for the onset of El Niño, with earliest predictions as early as April and latest as late summer or early fall. The predictions vary significantly among models, for example:

• The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts predicts April;
• Australia forecasts May;
• Japan Meteorological Agency predicts June;
• U.S. experts estimate between July and September.

Overall, the likelihood of an El Niño developing in the equatorial central Pacific in the second half of this year is high, but the exact timing and overall strength remain uncertain. Currently, international climate models show considerable divergence, and no consensus has been reached. Therefore, it is premature to conclude that a “super El Niño” will occur this year.

Climate expert Chen Lijuan points out that El Niño events are often associated with global temperature increases. However, the magnitude of warming and extreme weather manifestations depend on the strength, type, and regional climate response of the El Niño, requiring ongoing monitoring and analysis. It is too early to determine whether an extremely strong El Niño will lead to the hottest year on record.

Weather and climate change are closely related to people’s lives and economic development. As a result, information about weather and climate tends to attract high public attention. Amid frequent extreme weather events, there is a vast amount of related information circulating. Currently, discussions on social media about “hottest years” and “extreme weather” are lively, but some information may be exaggerated or taken out of context.

Chen Lijuan advises the public to view forecast information rationally. Climate predictions carry inherent uncertainties, especially regarding the exact timing, strength, and regional impacts of El Niño, which require dynamic monitoring and forecasting. The public should pay attention to real-time updates from authoritative sources rather than isolated extreme statements. It is recommended to consult official channels such as the National Climate Center, the China Meteorological Administration’s website and official social media platforms, and regularly review authoritative reports like ENSO monitoring bulletins. International organizations such as the World Meteorological Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also publish periodic global climate assessments, which can serve as references.

Finally, regardless of whether El Niño occurs, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather has become a new normal in global climate change. Scientific responses are essential. The public should stay alert to weather warnings and prepare accordingly. Agricultural producers should plan their farming activities reasonably, and city managers should strengthen the resilience of infrastructure such as power supply, water, and transportation.