Guangzhou and Shenzhen Real Estate "Mini Spring" Behind the Scenes: Second-hand Houses Become Main Force, New House Market Shows Polarization Trend

March has traditionally been the peak season for the real estate market, and the quality of the “Golden March and Silver April” directly affects the market’s overall direction for the year.

Recently, the Guangzhou and Shenzhen housing markets have emerged from the low transaction period after the Spring Festival holiday, with both viewing and transaction volumes rising simultaneously, and market warmth continuing to spread.

According to visits to some properties, conversations with real estate agents, and insights from multiple research institutions, the current “small spring” in Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s real estate markets has effectively arrived. At the same time, market logic has undergone a significant change: some popular “bargain” properties (describing high-cost-performance properties priced significantly lower than similar listings in the same area) are gradually disappearing, and the bargaining space for listed properties with owners is shrinking.

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It is worth noting that both Guangzhou and Shenzhen are showing a comprehensive lead in the second-hand housing market, becoming the main drivers of this warming “small spring.” Meanwhile, the new housing market is showing a polarized trend. Since the beginning of the year, Shenzhen’s new home supply has decreased year-over-year, while luxury homes in Guangzhou’s core areas remain hot, and first-time buyers are still relying on discounts to drive sales. It can be said that the pattern of the primary and secondary markets has reversed, with structural changes on the supply side, making this round of “small spring” particularly distinctive.

Second-hand Housing Leading the “Small Spring”

In this round of Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s “small spring,” second-hand homes are taking the lead, fundamentally rewriting the market logic.

From data to firsthand experience, second-hand homes are dominating the recovery.

Shenzhen’s second-hand housing market was the first to ignite, becoming the core engine of this revival. According to monitoring by Le You Jia stores, after the Spring Festival, second-hand home signing volume surged by 132% month-over-month, reaching the highest level since late March 2024. As of February 2026, the average transaction price for second-hand residential properties in Shenzhen has risen to 62,000 yuan per square meter.

Data from Beike Research Institute shows that from March 2 to 8, second-hand home signing volume in Shenzhen increased by 118% month-over-month, with daily transactions on March 8 reaching a nearly one-year high, continuing to rise for two consecutive weeks.

Additionally, market sentiment is recovering in tandem. According to the latest monitoring data from Shenzhen Beike Research Institute, in February, the number of second-hand homes listed by their partner stores decreased by 3.3% year-over-year. Rational selling has significantly decreased, and the market is gradually entering a healthy cycle of “expectation strengthening—supply optimization—price stabilization.”

“Currently, high-quality school district homes and properties with low total prices and high rental yields are recovering most noticeably. For example, in our area, the Liyuan main campus school district homes, such as the 83-square-meter three-bedroom in Yuanling Garden, are seeing increased inquiries and transactions after the holiday, compared to before the holiday,” Liu Anying, a senior agent in the Yuanling area of Futian, Shenzhen, told the Daily Economic News on the afternoon of March 14.

Liu Anying mentioned that the transaction speed of “bargain” second-hand homes has been compressed into a relatively short cycle, with some even selling within a week of being listed. “Take the Hailing Court project in Futian as an example. The approximately 108-square-meter three-bedroom units are generally listed above 8.2 million yuan, but some owners are eager to sell, with listed prices around 7.55 million yuan, and these can usually be sold in about a week,” she said.

In fact, similar phenomena are also present in Luohu, Shenzhen. As transaction volumes increase, owners’ attitudes become more stable, and they are less anxious to sell, which significantly reduces bargaining space.

For example, a two-bedroom unit of 47.84 square meters in Cuizhu Garden, Luohu, which the reporter visited at the end of last year, was previously listed at 2.45 million yuan. An agent revealed that the lowest price could be around 2.3 million yuan. However, in March this year, the agent told the reporter that the lowest asking price was 2.37 million yuan.

The second-hand housing market in Guangzhou has also experienced a strong rebound.

Data from Beike shows that on March 8, Guangzhou’s second-hand home transactions reached 247 units in a single day, up 25.4% from the previous period; for the week of March 2-8, a total of 849 units were sold, an increase of 118.8% week-over-week. Post-holiday demand has been released in full, with continued increases in viewing numbers at real estate agencies. The Guangzhou Real Estate Agency Association’s March manager index rose to 71.78, indicating strong confidence in the “small spring.”

According to Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, both Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s markets show the core feature of “second-hand homes outperforming new homes.” The number of new listings for second-hand homes has decreased year-over-year, market sentiment continues to improve, and this also stimulates replacement demand of “selling old and buying new,” gradually smoothing the market cycle.

Xiao Xiaoping, director of Beike Research Institute in Shenzhen, believes that this round of warming is not a policy-driven short-term rebound but a resonance of policy optimization, confidence restoration, and concentrated release of demand for self-occupation. The continued volume increase in second-hand homes and the simultaneous rise in new homes make the foundation of this “small spring” more solid.

Structural Trends in the New Housing Market

Unlike the overall hot second-hand market, the new housing market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has not experienced a broad price increase but is characterized by a typical “structural trend.”

For example, in Guangzhou, the top luxury market has repeatedly broken transaction records, boosting nearby new housing viewing enthusiasm. In February, the Tianhe Ma Chang site was sold for 23.604 billion yuan at a premium rate of 26.60%, with a residential floor price of about 85,500 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for Guangzhou’s floor price.

On March 2, a 670-square-meter top-floor duplex in Poly Yuexi Bay, Zhujiang New Town, was sold for 187 million yuan, with a unit price of about 280,000 yuan per square meter, breaking the local record for top-tier luxury homes. On March 9, five units in Galaxy Bay Peninsula No. 5, totaling 7.187 billion yuan, were sold in a single day, with luxury homes in the core area experiencing unprecedented demand.

Compared to the continuous record-breaking of luxury homes, the primary market for affordable new homes in Guangzhou shows a clear “discounted volume” trend.

Guangzhou real estate agent Luo Jiamin told reporters that many first-time buyer projects in Guangzhou are now using discounts and special offers to attract buyers. “Not offering discounts makes it hard to sell.”

Luo Jiamin added, “For example, the price of the raw units in Huangpu Galaxy Bay Mountain has been directly adjusted to starting at 19,000 yuan per square meter, with three different options—raw, simplified, and luxury finishes—to attract buyers. The limited-time discount at Lihua New World Tianfu is directly 14% off, as low as 38,000 yuan per square meter.” She explained that the market is very pragmatic now; without fixed prices, special offers, or discounts, even with many viewers, sales are difficult.

According to Zhongyuan Research Institute data, as of the end of February 2026, Guangzhou’s narrow inventory was 14.164 million square meters, a decrease of 13,000 square meters from January. Due to a general decrease in new supply in key areas in February, the new housing market mainly absorbed existing stock, with inventory slightly declining and decreasing for four consecutive months.

In Shenzhen, since 2026, there has been a noticeable slowdown in the “supply rhythm.” According to Midland Realty, only nine residential projects obtained pre-sale permits this year, far fewer than the 12 projects in the same period last year.

Because new home supply is slow to enter the market, it cannot form a large-scale influx, leading to a structure where core areas see volume growth and stable prices, while first-time buyer areas rely on price reductions to drive sales, resulting in a structurally warming market.

According to Centaline Property data, as of March 12, Shenzhen’s total transaction volume for commercial residential properties was 964 units, with 1,703 second-hand units transferred.

Although new home transactions in Shenzhen are weaker than second-hand sales, the reporter noted that since March, many projects have released hot-selling posters, such as Longhua HongRongYuan GuanCheng selling 41 units on March 7-8, Ocean City ChengMing Garden selling 39 units in the previous week, and China State Construction PengChen YunZhu selling 32 units in one week.

“With high-quality land parcels in core cities gradually entering the market in 2025, and some developers increasing promotional efforts, market demand is expected to gradually release in March. The ‘small spring’ in core cities remains promising,” said Zhongzhi Research Institute.